Samples


We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.

Posted in Samples, Total Return Review

Open February Total Return Review: Stocks Again For The Long Run, But Only Barely
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through February. ?? This month, we take a look at the historic nature of stock returns versus bond returns over the past 30 years.

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Open November Total Return Review: A Long Term Look At Stock Returns
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through November. ?? Also, a look at the total return of the S&P 500 on a 1 and 10 year rolling basis.

Posted in Samples, Total Return Review

Open September Total Return Review:So Much For Seasonal Patterns – Best September For Stocks Since 1939
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through September. ?? This past month proved to be the best September to own the S&P 500 since 1939.  So what should investors expect going into October?

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Open January Total Return Review: Dispelling Common Seasonal Myths
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through January.  Seasonal patterns are very popluar near the beginning of any year. While interesting, they often need to be viewed in a larger context.

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Open September Total Return Review: September’s Stock Swoon
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through September. Now that volatility has picked up amid some of the worst monthly stock returns since 1970, can we make any inferences about future stock returns?

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Open April Total Return Review: Treasuries Vastly Outperform Stocks Over The Past 10 Years
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through April. Over the last 10 years stocks have underperformed bonds to a degree not seen since 1941. Over this same period investors have ploughed most of their mutual fund money into stocks. Do they have it right?

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Open October Total Return Review: Sharpe Ratios Suggest Too Much Risk for the Reward
The attached tables and comments update the total returns through October. This month, we also take a look at the risk-adjusted returns of various fixed income and equity indices

Posted in Samples, Total Return Review

Open March Total Return Review: All Commodity Indices Are Not Created Equal
The attached tables update the total returns through March Also, a look at the differences of various commodity indices by weighting.

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Open November Total Return Review: Yield Curve, Convexity And Total Returns
The attached tables update the total returns through November. Total returns on long-term Treasuries resumed moving higher after the yield curve renewed its flattening in June 2006. This is consistent with earlier observations that the value of convexity would outweigh negative carry. It also raises the prospect that any relaxation of credit by the Federal Reserve and concomitant re-steepening of the yield curve will reduce the total returns on long-dated Treasuries.

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Open June Total Return Notes: Market Transition Lifts Barbells
Long-duration bonds should do well when the end of federal funds rate hikes comes into view and the yield curve is inverted. Even so, the large gains seen in the cash+25-year strip barbell versus the five-year strip bullet is striking. June’s returns on 5-6 year government strips were negative, while the returns for both cash and the 15-20 year government strips were strongly positive. This is about as close to a perfect trade as any bullet/barbell combination is likely to get.

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Open June Total Return Review: Is General Motors In Your Portfolio?
The attached tables update the total returns through June. A look at the effect General Motors bonds had on the Merrill High Yield Master II Index and the Merrill Investment Grade Corporate Master Index.

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Open January Total Return Review: The Bull Flattener Does Matter!
The attached tables update the total returns through January. January 2005 was unusual for its total return potential on a bullet-barbell trade within the context of a bullish flattening of the yield curve.

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Open July Total Return Review: How Bad Was July for Treasuries?
The attached tables update the total returns through July. A look at the monthly total returns of Treasuries on a historical basis. How bad was July for Treasuries?

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Open September Total Return Review
The attached tables update the total returns through September. A look at the total returns of the S&P 500 on a historical basis. Just how bad is this bear market?

Posted in Samples, Total Return Review

Open Special Total Return Review
Tables showing the performance of many different indices, commodities and currencies since September 11. Also highlighted is the performance of the stock market and how it is consistent with an impending economic recovery.