Samples


We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Europe Has Short-Circuited Default/Devaluation Adjustment Mechanisms Audio
Stresses within the European Monetary Union will be absorbed by steeper coupon yield curves at higher rates than would exist otherwise.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Municipal Bonds’ Stress Level Rising Anew
Municipal bond stress levels are rising with prospects for more of the same.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Tracking the True Cost Of The TARP
The Treasury infused $247.26 billion into 184 companies over the span of the credit crisis. In exchange for these bailouts, the Treasury received securities that are currently valued at $255.10 billion. This means the TARP bailouts have actually turned a profit for U.S. taxpayers as of this writing. After factoring in the current value of the securities the Treasury received in exchange for its bailout money, the Treasury has turned a net profit of $7.84 billion for a 3.17% return on investment over the period.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Revisiting The Stock-Treasury Relationship After The Collapse
The long-term correlation of returns between stocks and government bonds in the U.S. and Japan has become less negative as bond yields refuse to decline further.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Autumnal Update On And Wintry Outlook For Municipal Bonds
An already poor outlook for municipal bonds has been made worse by federal claims on available capital.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Rumblings Of Global Deflation
The plunge in the Baltic Dry Freight index reflects the powerful deflationary forces unleashed by the credit crunch.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open What Is Taylor-Rule Neutrality For The Federal Funds Rate?
Both the binary options market and the federal funds futures market are expecting no move at this month’s September 16, 2008 meeting. If the Federal Reserve is holding at 2.00%, does this mean they have achieved a neutral funds rate? One popular way to measure “neutral” is to use the Taylor rule, created by Stanford economist John Taylor.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Was There A Global Currency Deal?
Currency movements changed dramatically at the time of the Fannie Mae – Freddie Mac backstopping. Why?

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open A Perspective On Gasoline Demand Are We Overstating Its Influence?
The decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled to-date is only one-third the size of the 1970s despite a parallel rise in price. More important, the rising productivity of motor fuel consumption has dampened the macroeconomic shock seen in the 1970s. Demand destruction is not as great as it may appear.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open How Big Are The Banking System’s Losses Now?
How many really understand losses are at $800 billion now? It is worrisome that after a year the statement of facts and reasonable projections are taken as stunning news.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Stock-Treasury Relationship: Revisiting Long-Term Analogs
The present situation is so dangerous that both hyperinflation and deflation could result from different policy errors. The present monetary policy may be the correct one.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Will Home Equity Loans Be The Next Stage In The Credit Crisis?
At the heart of the credit crisis is the plunge in home prices. Even though many have proclaimed the crisis over, home prices have continued to plunge. As long as they do, the credit crisis is at risk to morph into other forms. Home equity loans now look like one of the next areas of vulnerability for the financial system.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Overnight Index Swaps And LIBOR
While short-term interest swaps may be moving from LIBOR to the overnight index swap market, spreads have narrowed, not widened, during this shift.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Who Are The Commodity Speculators?
If “speculators” are driving commodities higher, then they are not done. The popularity of long-only funds and commodity ETFs is not waning. The buyers of these funds do not think they are part of the problem of rampant speculation, so they continue to push money into these funds which helps force prices even higher.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Revisiting Freight Rates And Industrial Commodities
Changes in the Baltic Dry Freight index and in industrial materials prices since January underscore global industrial strength.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open What Will It Take To End The Credit Crisis?
For the credit crisis to truly end, more collateralized loans are not the answer. More capital, in excess of the losses to-date, is the answer. This way the financial system can again expand to meet the needs of the real economy.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open What Is Taylor-Rule Neutrality For The Federal Funds Rate?
Where should a neutral federal funds rate be? The Taylor Rule offers an objective standard to answer this question.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open Municipal Bonds Remain Under Pressure
The municipal bond market remains in disarray with continued negative fundamentals.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open What Is The Real Cause Of The Credit Crisis?
The credit crisis is the result of a nationwide decline in home prices. This, not the price of CDOs and other derivative securities, is what needs to end for the current crisis to end.

Posted in Commentaries, Samples

Open The Helicopter Has Landed Again
The Federal Reserve seems determined to duplicate the Bank of Japan’s successes with zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing.