Samples


We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open The Upside Bias Of Quadruple Witching Remains In The Flash-Crash World Audio (1:12)
The upside bias of quadruple-witching expirations continues.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open The Nikkei-NASDAQ Analog Enters Make-or-Break Zone
The analog between the Nikkei 225 and the NASDAQ Composite is entering a critical zone.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Intraday Correlation At Silliness Extreme
The intraday linkages between equities, crude oil and the euro have exceeded the bounds of absurdity.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open It Is All The Same Trade
In addition to an absolute wealth loss, the credit crunch has, as all crises do, forced a confluence of returns and made diversification difficult if not impossible to achieve.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open S&P 500 And Three-Month Treasury Bill Comparative Returns
The inability of the S&P 500 to outperform Treasury bills for 11 3/4 years poses a challenge for investment professionals.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open What We Have Here Is Failure To Deliver
Primary delivery failure data underscore a collapse in non-Treasury securities as a store of value.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Revisiting TIPS, Treasuries And Insurance
Yesterday’s price action in the TIPS market confirmed once again how breakeven rates of inflation are distorted by conventional Treasuries’ insurance role.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Ethanol Economics Stabilized During Commodity Decline
Ethanol distillation margins stabilized during the recent commodity price breaks, portending further food price inflation.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Trends In U.S. Trade Weights
Changing trade weights over time are functions more of relative growth than of exchange rates.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Housing Seasonality: A Thin Reed On Which To Cling
While seasonality in the S&P/Case-Shiller national housing index is statistically significant, it is economically meaningless.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Higher Crude Oil Prices Still Not Negative For U.S. Equities.
The partial contribution of higher crude oil prices to U.S. equities remains positive; this is because other factors are putting more significant downward pressure on stocks.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Ethanol, Corn And Food Price Inflation
Ethanol distillation margins are negative, but rising fuel prices give gasoline blenders pricing power to compete for increasingly scarce corn supplies.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Commodity Speculators And U.S. Refining Margins
Changes in U.S. refining economics are independent of long-only commodity index funds’ activities.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Financials’ Cost Of Capital
The financial firms at the heart of the credit crunch have been rewarded with low current weighted average costs of capital.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Expected 3-Month LIBOR Rising
While the spread between the three-month LIBOR set-for-tomorrow swap and effective federal funds is re-normalizing, the high realized volatility of effective federal funds indicates continued high levels of market stress.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open How Big Are Commodity Index Funds?
At over $336 billion in long index positions as of March 11, 2008, index trading accounts for almost 70% of all the money in the commodities market as measured by the CRB. These numbers are even more impressive considering long-only commodity index funds essentially did not exist before this decade.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Steeper Yield Curve’s Industry Group Effect On U.S. Equities
The net effect of a steeper yield curve on U.S. equities is strongly positive, with the greatest benefits in the consumer sectors.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Tanker Tariffs To Pressure U.S. Crude Oil In Short-Term
Rising crude oil tanker tariffs presage an inventory build in the first quarter of 2008.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open Crude Oil’s Forward Curve, Inventories & Price
A year-over-year comparison of crude oil’s forward curve indicates inventory accumulation has been replaced by final demand.

Posted in Market Facts, Samples

Open An Update On The Credit Crisis: Is The Fed “Pushing On A String?”
Over the past few months we have compiled a rather extensive list of charts which we believe to be good measures of stress in the credit markets. Because we are regularly asked for updates to these charts, we thought it would be useful to provide a laundry list of these measures, updating them on a semi-regular basis.

To see more of our credit charts, including larger versions of all charts included in this update, see the accompanying Power Point file.