Category: Samples

AQA Weekly Highlights for November 7, 2016

USTs – Flattening-Friendly Outlook TIPS Breakevens – Looking to Monthly Supports for 5yrs, 10yrs Sovereigns Becoming Believers in Improving Economic Growth? US, UK, and German 10 Years – Oversold German Sovereigns – Balanced Outlook Canadian Sovereigns – Supports Hold...

AQA Morning Update – Sep 13

USTs leaning stronger overnight (10y 1.65, -1.2 bps) while US equities futures are in the red. WTI crude oil weaker after IEA report indicates continued supply glut. $12 billion 30 year reopening today. Economic data calendar remains light until Thursday...

TIPS Breakevens – Above Fair Values

Breakevens were mixed after Monday’s session. Shorter maturities performed best, but 30yrs are pressing monthly resistance. All maturities now slightly wider than our fair value estimates. We would be hesitant to add to long exposure here. Note that crude oil has ascended...

AQA Weekly Highlights for September 6, 2016

USTs – Bullish Outlook Fed’s Evans Rethinking Term Premium Boring Economic Growth = Boring Markets German Sovereigns Outlook Gold’s Bullish Bias Fades TIPS Breakevens – 5yrs Near Key Support US Credit Update – Technology Under-Performing Full slide deck: AQA_Weekly_Highlights_09-06-2016.pdf

Feature Post: FOMC Needs Balanced Risks, Inflation Progress to Hike Again

The formal balance of risks assessment has now been absent for the past three meetings while the FOMC remained divided on the level of downside risks. Financial conditions and global risks are now favorable for tightening, leaving economic data as the critical hurdle. We continue to believe the Fed will hold in June as they wait for a clearer picture on Q2 growth and inflation. The FOMC may use the return of the balance of risks assessment to signal the timing of the next hike.