USTs – Flattening-friendly Outlook

U.S. Treasuries backed-off on Tuesday led by 5-years (2.73, +3.1 bps). Long-end yields are still near range lows in place since late March 2018. Kaplan indicated expected economic slowing in 2019 warrants only three to four more hikes, which...

USTs – Rich to Fair Value

U.S. 10 and 30-year yields are falling toward range lows in place since early summer. Fears of a short-squeeze dominated while no U.S. economic data was released. Bostic (Atlanta Fed) indicated he will not vote for continued hikes in the...

USTs – Summer Siesta

U.S. Treasuries (10y 2.87) are seemingly taking an extended holiday to end the summer. Range trading continues until long-term inflation expectations finally take a direction. Short-term inflation expectations like U.S. 5-year TIPS breakevens are falling along with commodities. Potential...

USTs – Economic Data Misses

U.S. Treasuries modestly weakened at the short-end (2y 2.62, +1.2 bps) on Thursday. Precious and industrial metals took a breather from their recent pummeling, while equities jumped back higher. U.S. Treasury and equity implied volatility refuse to budge given...

USTs – Contagion? Nah

U.S. Treasuries (10y 2.88) are refusing to chase the continued volatility behind emerging markets and precious metals (gold fell $18). Contagion risk is awfully low, but emerging market economic data changes are slowing. Only 1/3rd of emerging markets are...

USTs – Never-ending Range Trade

U.S. Treasuries (10y 2.86) shot higher to end the week, but remain stuck in a seemingly, unending range-trade. Rising uncertainty across trade and monetary policies suggest volatility should be on the rebound. Emerging market economic data changes have slowed...