TIPS Breakevens – Another Disappointment

AQA Comments:  Another disappointment in the books. CPI missed on headline and core on a month-over-month, and core on a year-over-year basis. The non-seasonally adjusted index also missed low, falling short of expectations for accrual. Breakeven spreads kept it together for...

USTs – Range-trade Continues

U.S. treasuries strengthened at the long-end (10y 2.97, -3.7 bps), flattening the 5y30y spread to fresh lows of 28.4 bps. Lukewarm CPI coupled with languishing wage gains are not a recipe for speedy tightening. But, the Fed remains committed...

AQA Morning Update – May 10, 2018

USTs – Will Inflation Expectations Finally Break-out?! TIPS Breakevens – CPI On Deck But It’s All About Oil Newsclips for Wednesday, May 9 USTs – Will Inflation Expectations Finally Break-out?! U.S. Treasuries (10y 3.01, +3.0 bps) slid early on...

USTs – Becoming Strongly Tied to EM Growth

U.S. treasuries (10y 2.97, +2.1 bps) modestly backed up on Tuesday, while energy markets provided the most excitement given the Iran sanctions announcement. The U.S. dollar continues to rise, putting emerging markets under focus. Economic data changes across the...

TIPS Breakevens – AHE Falls Short

AQA Comments:  Breakeven spreads ended the session mixed and little changed overall. TIPS were nearly unchanged on the day with the short end slightly outperformer weaker nominals. The disappointing average hourly earnings print was yet another instance where realized inflation...