Samples
We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Why Is The Market Rallying?
- Why Is The Market Rallying? – 2
- Did The G-7 Panic About The Carry Trade?
- Which Measure Do You Prefer: Core vs. Headline
- The Treasury Will Sell Its MBS Holdings
- Japan’s CDS Soars
- The PIIGS
- The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
- Money Market Mutual Funds
- Measures Of Debt
- Retail Gas Prices
- Federal Funds Futures: Large Speculators Liquidating Longs
Long Term Outlook
- The Cumulative Total Return Of U.S. Equities From 1802 to 2011
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Why Crude Oil Prices Are Now Above $100/Barrel
- Crude Oil Mid-Continent Dislocation Returns
- TIPS’ Forecasting Record Still Better Than Economists’
- Betting On Metals
- Declining Carry Trade Again A Warning To Global Equities
- Russian Markets Facing Rising Inflation
- Carry Into Filipino Markets Fading
- Thailand Turns Lower As Carry Fades
- Korean Markets Avoid Damage From Rising Short-Term Rates
- Carry Trades Into Indonesia Slowing
- India Fights Inflation
- Core Versus Headline Inflation
- The Fed/Bread Spread
- Currency Carry And Higher-Risk Bonds
- European Currencies And Cross-Rates: The Mess Continues
- The Yuan And U.S. Inflation: How RV2 Led QE2
- Yuan’s Impact On CPI/PPI Sub-Indices
- Coupon Yield Curve Returns In A Flattening Yield Curve
- Mutual Fund Flows
- Stock Market Capitalization As A % of Nominal GDP
- Cotton Futures: Swap Dealers Shedding Long Positions
Long Term Outlook
- LT Look: Case-Shiller Nominal Home Price Index Back to 1890
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- The State Of The Economy
- What Does The First Week Of Trading Tell Us?
- What Does The First Month Of Trading Tell Us?
- Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs?
- Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 2
- Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 3
- December Total Return Review: 2010 Total Return Notes
- Real Interest Rates And Prospective Returns As 2011 Begins
- U.S. Stocks Closing Valuation Gap
- Mutual Fund Flows Update
- Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Increasingly Negative
- Equity Volatility: No Exuberance In Evidence
- 10yr Tsy Futures: Large Speculators Add To Short Positions
Long Term Outlook
- Moody’s Interest Rates
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Are Rates Rising For The Wrong Reasons?
- More on Inflation Expectations
- Muni Update
- Capital Gains And The Deficit
- Hedge Fund Returns 1998 – Current
- A Few More Interesting Charts On Hedge Funds
- ETF Assets Update
- European Borrowing Costs Threaten Lower Equity Returns
- European Short-Term Rates In Bearish Steepening
- PIIGS
- Hedging Non-EMU Bonds: The Euro Remains Preferred
- Comments On Gold And Gold-Linked Equities
- Rising Gold Still Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
- Eurodollar Futures: Commercials Cover Short Positions
Long Term Outlook
- Total Receipts (Taxes) To GNP/GDP
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE?
- Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE? – 2
- Ireland Keeps Widening
- Sovereign CDS Costs Not A Matter Of Immediate Concern
- Comparative U.S.-German Long-Term Note Yields Revisited
- U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Yen Remains
- The Latest On The Double Dip And The Markets
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
- TIPS Breakeven Factors Do Not Show Deflation Concern
- Do TIPS Share FOMC’s Deflation Fear?
- Livestock And Relative Food Price Inflation
- Relative Financial Stock Performance During Bernanke Era
- Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
- The Euro Is Climbing Its Wall Of Worry
- Productivity And Employment
- Revisiting Prospective Net Treasury Risk And Return
- Rising Gold Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
- Extreme Price Change Frequency Rising For LT Bonds
- Different Yield Curve Measures And The Taylor Rule
- Partial Contribution Of Yield Curve To U.S. Equities Negative
- Revisiting Comparative Carries Into Indonesia
- Ethanol: The Gift That Keeps On Taking
- Canadian Dollar: Large Specs Rebuilding Net Long Positions
- 2 Yr T-Note Futures: Small Traders Carry The Torch For Shorts
Long Term Outlook
- The CRB Index and LT Interest Rates Back to 1790
Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- QE 1A
- The Federal Reserve’s Holdings Of Government Securities
- Big Owners Of Government Securities
- Should We Worry About Deflation?
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
- Economic Indicators That Lead vs. Coincident
- ECRI – Slowdown or Double Dip?
- Economic Indicators That Lead
- Do Stocks Predict Recessions?
- Explaining Company Guidance
- Does Company Guidance LEAD The Economy?
- Does Company Guidance LEAD The Stock Market?
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Bank Funding – The Next Issue For European Banks
- Gulf of Mexico Rigs Continue To Plummet
- Global Petroleum Inventories
- Case Shiller Update
- OER Opens A Window On A Societal Change
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
- The Deficit
- Foreigners Purchase $910 Billion Of U.S. Assets In Past Year
- Short-Term Interest Rates: When Low Is Not Low Enough
- Wheat Price Unlikely To Increase Relative Food Inflation
- Net Inflation Expectations Peaked In Advance Of Gold’s Highs To-Date
- Commodity Indices Offer Poor Inflation And Currency Protection
- Commodity-Linked Equities Remain A Dollar, Not A Commodity Trade
- U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Japanese Yen
- S&P 100 Daily Range Trends Over Past Year
- Goldman Sachs Still Seen At Risk
- BP: Past The Risk Of Ruin?
- Assessment Of August 10th FOMC Meeting
- Partial Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Approaching Zero
- Short-Term Forward Rates In U.S. & Japan
- Cheaper Yen Not Sparking Carry Trades
- Revisiting Month-End Duration Extensions For American Bonds
- Gold Futures: Funds Are Liquidating Longs
Long Term Outlook
- Long-Term Interest Rates Back To 1790
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Is The Crowd Too Bearish?
- S&P 500 Drawdown
- Are U.S. Stocks Wildly Undervalued Given Earnings Estimates?
- Revisiting Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
- Revisiting S&P 500 & 3-Mth Treasury Bill Comparative Returns
- Equities Still Correlated Positively To Higher Short-Term Yields
- Measuring Gold’s Decline
- Manufacturing Jobs – Do They Matter Anymore?
- ISM Manufacturing Index’ Reversal Not Deterministic
- Currency Reserves
- ECRI Falls Again
- Chances Of A Double Dip Recession
- Refis Boom Again, Purchases Fall To New Lows
- R.I.P TALF
- Swap Spreads Still Signaling Narrower Corp. Credit Spreads
- Savings Rates And Asset Prices During The Keynesian Thermidor
- Corporate Yield Curves After The Bull Run
- Comparative Utility Yield Curves
- Comparative Financial Yield Curves Argue For Defensive Stance
- Does LIBOR Matter Anymore?
- U.K. Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens Revisited
- Asset Returns Differentiation At The G-20 Junction
- Partial Contribution Of 10-Yr Note Yields Decreasingly Positive For Equities
- Integrated Oils’ Relative Performance & Crude Oil Prices
- Revisiting Index Options Settlement’s Risk
- The Upside Bias Of Quadruple Witching Remains
- 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: No Trend-Followers Need Apply
Long Term Outlook
LT Interest Rates & YoY Change In CPO Back to 1801
Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Almost $1Trillion In Losses
- Banks Are Lending!
- Measuring Credit Creation
- Measuring The Size of Securitization – 1
- Measuring The Size of Securitization -2
- The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
- The Federal Reserve
- It Is All The Same Trade
- The Stock Market Decline Now Rivals The 1930s
- Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
- Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
- Agency Spreads And Foreign Buying
- Mortgage Rates And Spreads
- Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
- Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Summary
- Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Detail
- The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
- Significant Moves Before Labor Day 2008
- Significant Moves After Labor Day 2008
- Known TARP Money Awarded – 1
- Known TARP Money Awarded – 2
- Known TARP Money Awarded – 3
- Madoff Losses Update
- Federal Funds Futures: Good Resistance At 100
Long Term Outlook - The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Back To 1749
Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Summary/Conclusion – The Beginning Of The End
- The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
- Almost $1 Trillion In Losses
- Three Months To Remember
- The Federal Reserves Exploding Balance Sheet
- The Federal Reserves Exploding Discount Window
- The Economy Stopped In October
- It Is All The Same Trade
- ABX/CMBX Get “TARPed”
- Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
- Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
- Repo Still Not Healthy
- Agency Spreads – All About The Chinese
- Mortgage Spreads – Not Getting Worse
- Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
- Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
- Stock Market Decline Now Rivals 2000 to 2002
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- What Does A “Medicated” LIBOR Measure?
- Are CDX Prices Pointing To Health In The Credit Markets?
- Credit Spreads Are Still At Crisis Levels
- Distressed Debt
- Munis vs. Treasuries
- Sovereign Credit Risks: With A Little Help From Our Friends
- Sovereign CDS Costs’ Impact On equities And Currencies
- Are E&P Stocks Calling An Energy Commodity Bottom?
- Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP
- Total Return Review Update
- Revisiting The Stock-Treasury Relationship After The Collapse
- Corporate Yield Curves Fifteen Months Into The Credit Crisis
- Implications For Long-Term Treasury Returns
- The Baltic Dry Index
- Gasoline, Productivity And Inflation After The Downturn
- Metals Led Mining Equities’ Relative Performance Lower
- Ethanol Economics, Hedging & VeraSun Energy’s Bankruptcy
- The Federal Reserve And Crude Oil After The Collapse
- Crude Oil Futures: Large Specs Should Stand And Be Counted
Long Term Outlook - Federal Funds Rate and YoY Change in Core CPI Back to 1958
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Fannie And Freddie
- The Federal Reserve And Comical Ideas
- Effective Versus Target Rate
- European Financials Week
- Housing Troubles
- Update on CMBX
- Primary Dealers Activity
- Different Tricks For Different VIX
- Crude’s Fourth Bear Market During The Bull Market
- Lower Gold Still Not Positive For U.S. Equities
- Implications Of Rising Japanese Sovereign Credit Risk
- Did Commodity Break Affect Global Equity Returns?
- Revisiting Employment Costs And Consumer Prices
- How Much Gasoline Do We Use?
- Market Cap to GDP Update
- Sovereign Credit Risks Remain Elevated
- Municipal Excess Returns Over Treasuries
- Gold: Large Speculators Keep Dancing After Music Stops
Long Term Outlook
- Short Term Interest Rates Back to 1831
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Financial Losses Update and Perspective
- Capital Raised and Wall Street Job Losses
- The FOMC Is Having Problems Hitting Its Target
- Second Comparative Assessment Of April 30th FOMC Meeting
- Was Last Week A “Sea Change” For LIBOR?
- Eurodollars, The TED Spread And The Turning Point
- Update On Commercial Paper
- High Yield Corporate Bonds
- Fixed-Income Implied Volatility Remains Relatively High
- Ethanol Economics Improving
- China’s Plunge
- Revisiting The Yuan And U.S. Inflation
- European Volatility And Swap Spreads
- Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens In The U.K.
- Yen Futures: Large Speculators Remain Long
- ETF Assets
- Breaking Down ETF Assets
- StreetTracks Gold Trust
Long Term Outlook
- Yearly Average Of The CRB Back To 1450
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 1
- What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 2
- Stocks Continue To Diverge From Credit
- Housing Prices Are Not Bottoming
- Comparative Assessment Of The March 18th FOMC Meeting
- Is CMBX The New ABX? – 1
- Is CMBX The New ABX? – 2
- ABX Indices Are Still Getting Worse
- Producer Price Inflation
- Tips Breakeven Are Moving Higher
- Emerging And US Market, Are They Decoupling?
- The Bond Market – Record Leverage And Bets On Rates
- Dealer Leverage Soars
- Total Banking System Losses
- Hedge Funds, Another 25 Standard Deviation Event*
- Revisiting Natural Gas And Inflation
- What Is Behind The Commodity Surge
- Mexican Peso: ¡Hedge Funds Are Buying The Country
Long Term Outlook
- Long-Term Rates Back To 1790
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- 3-Month GBP & US LIBOR Rates
- The Federal Reserve Takes A Stand
- Relative Stock-Bond Valuation
- Update On Commercial Paper
- Credit Spread Update
- Update On The ABX Indices
- Update On The CMBX Indices
- Current Account Deficit
- Chinese Stock Market
- What Is the Real Cause Of The Credit Crisis
- Measuring Nationwide Home Prices
- Measuring Housing Affordability
- Natural Gas Futures: Hedgers Look For Seasonality To Prevail
Long Term Outlook
- What Did The Federal Reserve Really Accomplish?
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Updating The Effective Rate
- Effective Federal Funds Divergence Is Ineffective Policy
- Asset-Backed Commercial Paper
- Volatile T-Bills, Jumping Loan Growth
- Mapping The Path To Libor Stress
- The Fed Continues To Pump In Liquidity
- Bond Issuance Updated
- Volatility Update
- Measuring The Stock Market’s Pain
- Financial Stocks
- Updating Mortgage Rates
- Measuring The Public’s Breakeven Point
- Using The Yield Curve To Predict Recessions
- Corporate Yield Curves After The Credit Crunch
- Long Term Futures: Large Speculators Play For Breakout
- Ten-Year TIPS Breakeven Rate of Inflation
Long Term Outlook
- Long Term Rates And CPI since 1914
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Understanding the Subprime Panic – 1
- Understanding the Subprime Panic – 2
- Understanding the Subprime Panic – 3
- Credit Markets
- Deals Continue To Drive The Stock Market
- Looking At Chinese Stocks
- Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
- The S&P 500 Leads The Federal Budget Deficit
- Relative Asset Returns And The Euro
- Stocks And Volatility
- S&P 500 Industry Group Impact Of Natural Gas
- The State of Crude Oil
- Core CPI versus Headline CPI
- Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
- Foreigners Buy Record Amounts of Corporates and Equities
- Long Treasury Bond Futures
- Ten-Year / Two-Year Note Yield Curve Spread
Long Term Outlook
- Yearly Average Of The CRB Back to 1450
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- The Worry About Subprime Continues
- Recent Spread Widening – How Significant?
- Recent Spread Widening – How Significant? – 2
- M&A Boom Hits A New Record!
- Opposite of a Credit Crunch
- Financial Stock Underperformance
- Chinese Reserves – Updated
- Updating The Most Important Exchange Rate For US Tsys
- China Valuations Updated
- Time For A Euro Cover Story?
- European Markets And The Swiss Franc Carry Trade
- Gas Up Your Cars While You Still Can
- Real Estate Loans
- More on Commercial Real Estate
- Commodities – Understanding Roll Yield
- Gold ETFs – The New China?
- Finally A Uranium Dip
- Corn v Sugar
- 5-Year Note Futures: Large Speculators Cover Shorts
- Impact Of Long-Term Rates And The Yield Curve On Utilities
- The Yield Curve’s Impact And Utilities
- Ten-Year French OAT I/L Breakeven Rate of Inflation
Long Term Outlook
- The DJIA Back to 1789
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples
Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:
- Mutual Fund Flows – All Stocks vs. Bonds
- World vs. Domestic Mutual Fund Flows
- Measuring The Public’s Unrealized Profits
- How Big Is The Stock Market?
- Corporate Yield Curves’ Warnings
- Corporate Yield Curve And OAS
- Comparing The Stock Market To The Bond Market
- How Big Are Commodity Index Funds?
- The Commodity Index Traders’ Report
- Lumber Market Points Housing Lower Still
- Modeling TIPS Breakevens?
- A Different View Of The Surge In Corporate Profits
- Why Consumer Confidence Is A Meaningless Economic Indicator
- 2 Year Note Futures: Large Speculators Sell Aggressively
- Corporate Bond Option-Adjusted Spread
Long Term Outlook
- 93 Years Of Measuring The Probability of a Recession
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