Samples


We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.

Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Why Is The Market Rallying?
  • Why Is The Market Rallying? – 2
  • Did The G-7 Panic About The Carry Trade?
  • Which Measure Do You Prefer: Core vs. Headline
  • The Treasury Will Sell Its MBS Holdings
  • Japan’s CDS Soars
  • The PIIGS
  • The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
  • Money Market Mutual Funds
  • Measures Of Debt
  • Retail Gas Prices
  • Federal Funds Futures: Large Speculators Liquidating Longs

Long Term Outlook

  • The Cumulative Total Return Of U.S. Equities From 1802 to 2011
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Why Crude Oil Prices Are Now Above $100/Barrel
  • Crude Oil Mid-Continent Dislocation Returns
  • TIPS’ Forecasting Record Still Better Than Economists’
  • Betting On Metals
  • Declining Carry Trade Again A Warning To Global Equities
  • Russian Markets Facing Rising Inflation
  • Carry Into Filipino Markets Fading
  • Thailand Turns Lower As Carry Fades
  • Korean Markets Avoid Damage From Rising Short-Term Rates
  • Carry Trades Into Indonesia Slowing
  • India Fights Inflation
  • Core Versus Headline Inflation
  • The Fed/Bread Spread
  • Currency Carry And Higher-Risk Bonds
  • European Currencies And Cross-Rates: The Mess Continues
  • The Yuan And U.S. Inflation: How RV2 Led QE2
  • Yuan’s Impact On CPI/PPI Sub-Indices
  • Coupon Yield Curve Returns In A Flattening Yield Curve
  • Mutual Fund Flows
  • Stock Market Capitalization As A % of Nominal GDP
  • Cotton Futures: Swap Dealers Shedding Long Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • LT Look: Case-Shiller Nominal Home Price Index Back to 1890
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • The State Of The Economy
  • What Does The First Week Of Trading Tell Us?
  • What Does The First Month Of Trading Tell Us?
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs?
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 2
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 3
  • December Total Return Review: 2010 Total Return Notes
  • Real Interest Rates And Prospective Returns As 2011 Begins
  • U.S. Stocks Closing Valuation Gap
  • Mutual Fund Flows Update
  • Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Increasingly Negative
  • Equity Volatility: No Exuberance In Evidence
  • 10yr Tsy Futures: Large Speculators Add To Short Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • Moody’s Interest Rates
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Are Rates Rising For The Wrong Reasons?
  • More on Inflation Expectations
  • Muni Update
  • Capital Gains And The Deficit
  • Hedge Fund Returns 1998 – Current
  • A Few More Interesting Charts On Hedge Funds
  • ETF Assets Update
  • European Borrowing Costs Threaten Lower Equity Returns
  • European Short-Term Rates In Bearish Steepening
  • PIIGS
  • Hedging Non-EMU Bonds: The Euro Remains Preferred
  • Comments On Gold And Gold-Linked Equities
  • Rising Gold Still Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
  • Eurodollar Futures: Commercials Cover Short Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • Total Receipts (Taxes) To GNP/GDP
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE?
  • Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE? – 2
  • Ireland Keeps Widening
  • Sovereign CDS Costs Not A Matter Of Immediate Concern
  • Comparative U.S.-German Long-Term Note Yields Revisited
  • U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Yen Remains
  • The Latest On The Double Dip And The Markets
  • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
  • TIPS Breakeven Factors Do Not Show Deflation Concern
  • Do TIPS Share FOMC’s Deflation Fear?
  • Livestock And Relative Food Price Inflation
  • Relative Financial Stock Performance During Bernanke Era
  • Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
  • The Euro Is Climbing Its Wall Of Worry
  • Productivity And Employment
  • Revisiting Prospective Net Treasury Risk And Return
  • Rising Gold Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
  • Extreme Price Change Frequency Rising For LT Bonds
  • Different Yield Curve Measures And The Taylor Rule
  • Partial Contribution Of Yield Curve To U.S. Equities Negative
  • Revisiting Comparative Carries Into Indonesia
  • Ethanol: The Gift That Keeps On Taking
  • Canadian Dollar: Large Specs Rebuilding Net Long Positions
  • 2 Yr T-Note Futures: Small Traders Carry The Torch For Shorts

Long Term Outlook

  • The CRB Index and LT Interest Rates Back to 1790
Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • QE 1A
  • The Federal Reserve’s Holdings Of Government Securities
  • Big Owners Of Government Securities
  • Should We Worry About Deflation?
  • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
  • Economic Indicators That Lead vs. Coincident
  • ECRI – Slowdown or Double Dip?
  • Economic Indicators That Lead
  • Do Stocks Predict Recessions?
  • Explaining Company Guidance
  • Does Company Guidance LEAD The Economy?
  • Does Company Guidance LEAD The Stock Market?
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Bank Funding – The Next Issue For European Banks
    • Gulf of Mexico Rigs Continue To Plummet
    • Global Petroleum Inventories
    • Case Shiller Update
    • OER Opens A Window On A Societal Change
    • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
    • The Deficit
    • Foreigners Purchase $910 Billion Of U.S. Assets In Past Year
    • Short-Term Interest Rates: When Low Is Not Low Enough
    • Wheat Price Unlikely To Increase Relative Food Inflation
    • Net Inflation Expectations Peaked In Advance Of Gold’s Highs To-Date
    • Commodity Indices Offer Poor Inflation And Currency Protection
    • Commodity-Linked Equities Remain A Dollar, Not A Commodity Trade
    • U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Japanese Yen
    • S&P 100 Daily Range Trends Over Past Year
    • Goldman Sachs Still Seen At Risk
    • BP: Past The Risk Of Ruin?
    • Assessment Of August 10th FOMC Meeting
    • Partial Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Approaching Zero
    • Short-Term Forward Rates In U.S. & Japan
    • Cheaper Yen Not Sparking Carry Trades
    • Revisiting Month-End Duration Extensions For American Bonds
    • Gold Futures: Funds Are Liquidating Longs

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long-Term Interest Rates Back To 1790
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Is The Crowd Too Bearish?
    • S&P 500 Drawdown
    • Are U.S. Stocks Wildly Undervalued Given Earnings Estimates?
    • Revisiting Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
    • Revisiting S&P 500 & 3-Mth Treasury Bill Comparative Returns
    • Equities Still Correlated Positively To Higher Short-Term Yields
    • Measuring Gold’s Decline
    • Manufacturing Jobs – Do They Matter Anymore?
    • ISM Manufacturing Index’ Reversal Not Deterministic
    • Currency Reserves
    • ECRI Falls Again
    • Chances Of A Double Dip Recession
    • Refis Boom Again, Purchases Fall To New Lows
    • R.I.P TALF
    • Swap Spreads Still Signaling Narrower Corp. Credit Spreads
    • Savings Rates And Asset Prices During The Keynesian Thermidor
    • Corporate Yield Curves After The Bull Run
    • Comparative Utility Yield Curves
    • Comparative Financial Yield Curves Argue For Defensive Stance
    • Does LIBOR Matter Anymore?
    • U.K. Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens Revisited
    • Asset Returns Differentiation At The G-20 Junction
    • Partial Contribution Of 10-Yr Note Yields Decreasingly Positive For Equities
    • Integrated Oils’ Relative Performance & Crude Oil Prices
    • Revisiting Index Options Settlement’s Risk
    • The Upside Bias Of Quadruple Witching Remains
    • 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: No Trend-Followers Need Apply

    Long Term Outlook

    LT Interest Rates & YoY Change In CPO Back to 1801

    Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

    Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Almost $1Trillion In Losses
    • Banks Are Lending!
    • Measuring Credit Creation
    • Measuring The Size of Securitization – 1
    • Measuring The Size of Securitization -2
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • The Federal Reserve
    • It Is All The Same Trade
    • The Stock Market Decline Now Rivals The 1930s
    • Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
    • Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
    • Agency Spreads And Foreign Buying
    • Mortgage Rates And Spreads
    • Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
    • Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Summary
    • Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Detail
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • Significant Moves Before Labor Day 2008
    • Significant Moves After Labor Day 2008
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 1
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 2
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 3
    • Madoff Losses Update
    • Federal Funds Futures: Good Resistance At 100
      Long Term Outlook
    • The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Back To 1749
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

    Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Summary/Conclusion – The Beginning Of The End
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • Almost $1 Trillion In Losses
    • Three Months To Remember
    • The Federal Reserves Exploding Balance Sheet
    • The Federal Reserves Exploding Discount Window
    • The Economy Stopped In October
    • It Is All The Same Trade
    • ABX/CMBX Get “TARPed”
    • Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
    • Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
    • Repo Still Not Healthy
    • Agency Spreads – All About The Chinese
    • Mortgage Spreads – Not Getting Worse
    • Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
    • Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
    • Stock Market Decline Now Rivals 2000 to 2002
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • What Does A “Medicated” LIBOR Measure?
    • Are CDX Prices Pointing To Health In The Credit Markets?
    • Credit Spreads Are Still At Crisis Levels
    • Distressed Debt
    • Munis vs. Treasuries
    • Sovereign Credit Risks: With A Little Help From Our Friends
    • Sovereign CDS Costs’ Impact On equities And Currencies
    • Are E&P Stocks Calling An Energy Commodity Bottom?
    • Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP
    • Total Return Review Update
    • Revisiting The Stock-Treasury Relationship After The Collapse
    • Corporate Yield Curves Fifteen Months Into The Credit Crisis
    • Implications For Long-Term Treasury Returns
    • The Baltic Dry Index
    • Gasoline, Productivity And Inflation After The Downturn
    • Metals Led Mining Equities’ Relative Performance Lower
    • Ethanol Economics, Hedging & VeraSun Energy’s Bankruptcy
    • The Federal Reserve And Crude Oil After The Collapse
    • Crude Oil Futures: Large Specs Should Stand And Be Counted
      Long Term Outlook
    • Federal Funds Rate and YoY Change in Core CPI Back to 1958
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Fannie And Freddie
    • The Federal Reserve And Comical Ideas
    • Effective Versus Target Rate
    • European Financials Week
    • Housing Troubles
    • Update on CMBX
    • Primary Dealers Activity
    • Different Tricks For Different VIX
    • Crude’s Fourth Bear Market During The Bull Market
    • Lower Gold Still Not Positive For U.S. Equities
    • Implications Of Rising Japanese Sovereign Credit Risk
    • Did Commodity Break Affect Global Equity Returns?
    • Revisiting Employment Costs And Consumer Prices
    • How Much Gasoline Do We Use?
    • Market Cap to GDP Update
    • Sovereign Credit Risks Remain Elevated
    • Municipal Excess Returns Over Treasuries
    • Gold: Large Speculators Keep Dancing After Music Stops

    Long Term Outlook

    • Short Term Interest Rates Back to 1831
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Financial Losses Update and Perspective
    • Capital Raised and Wall Street Job Losses
    • The FOMC Is Having Problems Hitting Its Target
    • Second Comparative Assessment Of April 30th FOMC Meeting
    • Was Last Week A “Sea Change” For LIBOR?
    • Eurodollars, The TED Spread And The Turning Point
    • Update On Commercial Paper
    • High Yield Corporate Bonds
    • Fixed-Income Implied Volatility Remains Relatively High
    • Ethanol Economics Improving
    • China’s Plunge
    • Revisiting The Yuan And U.S. Inflation
    • European Volatility And Swap Spreads
    • Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens In The U.K.
    • Yen Futures: Large Speculators Remain Long
    • ETF Assets
    • Breaking Down ETF Assets
    • StreetTracks Gold Trust

    Long Term Outlook

    • Yearly Average Of The CRB Back To 1450
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 1
    • What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 2
    • Stocks Continue To Diverge From Credit
    • Housing Prices Are Not Bottoming
    • Comparative Assessment Of The March 18th FOMC Meeting
    • Is CMBX The New ABX? – 1
    • Is CMBX The New ABX? – 2
    • ABX Indices Are Still Getting Worse
    • Producer Price Inflation
    • Tips Breakeven Are Moving Higher
    • Emerging And US Market, Are They Decoupling?
    • The Bond Market – Record Leverage And Bets On Rates
    • Dealer Leverage Soars
    • Total Banking System Losses
    • Hedge Funds, Another 25 Standard Deviation Event*
    • Revisiting Natural Gas And Inflation
    • What Is Behind The Commodity Surge
    • Mexican Peso: ¡Hedge Funds Are Buying The Country

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long-Term Rates Back To 1790
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • 3-Month GBP & US LIBOR Rates
    • The Federal Reserve Takes A Stand
    • Relative Stock-Bond Valuation
    • Update On Commercial Paper
    • Credit Spread Update
    • Update On The ABX Indices
    • Update On The CMBX Indices
    • Current Account Deficit
    • Chinese Stock Market
    • What Is the Real Cause Of The Credit Crisis
    • Measuring Nationwide Home Prices
    • Measuring Housing Affordability
    • Natural Gas Futures: Hedgers Look For Seasonality To Prevail

    Long Term Outlook

    • What Did The Federal Reserve Really Accomplish?
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Updating The Effective Rate
    • Effective Federal Funds Divergence Is Ineffective Policy
    • Asset-Backed Commercial Paper
    • Volatile T-Bills, Jumping Loan Growth
    • Mapping The Path To Libor Stress
    • The Fed Continues To Pump In Liquidity
    • Bond Issuance Updated
    • Volatility Update
    • Measuring The Stock Market’s Pain
    • Financial Stocks
    • Updating Mortgage Rates
    • Measuring The Public’s Breakeven Point
    • Using The Yield Curve To Predict Recessions
    • Corporate Yield Curves After The Credit Crunch
    • Long Term Futures: Large Speculators Play For Breakout
    • Ten-Year TIPS Breakeven Rate of Inflation

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long Term Rates And CPI since 1914
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 1
    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 2
    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 3
    • Credit Markets
    • Deals Continue To Drive The Stock Market
    • Looking At Chinese Stocks
    • Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
    • The S&P 500 Leads The Federal Budget Deficit
    • Relative Asset Returns And The Euro
    • Stocks And Volatility
    • S&P 500 Industry Group Impact Of Natural Gas
    • The State of Crude Oil
    • Core CPI versus Headline CPI
    • Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
    • Foreigners Buy Record Amounts of Corporates and Equities
    • Long Treasury Bond Futures
    • Ten-Year / Two-Year Note Yield Curve Spread

    Long Term Outlook

    • Yearly Average Of The CRB Back to 1450
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • The Worry About Subprime Continues
    • Recent Spread Widening – How Significant?
    • Recent Spread Widening – How Significant? – 2
    • M&A Boom Hits A New Record!
    • Opposite of a Credit Crunch
    • Financial Stock Underperformance
    • Chinese Reserves – Updated
    • Updating The Most Important Exchange Rate For US Tsys
    • China Valuations Updated
    • Time For A Euro Cover Story?
    • European Markets And The Swiss Franc Carry Trade
    • Gas Up Your Cars While You Still Can
    • Real Estate Loans
    • More on Commercial Real Estate
    • Commodities – Understanding Roll Yield
    • Gold ETFs – The New China?
    • Finally A Uranium Dip
    • Corn v Sugar
    • 5-Year Note Futures: Large Speculators Cover Shorts
    • Impact Of Long-Term Rates And The Yield Curve On Utilities
    • The Yield Curve’s Impact And Utilities
    • Ten-Year French OAT I/L Breakeven Rate of Inflation

    Long Term Outlook

    • The DJIA Back to 1789
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Mutual Fund Flows – All Stocks vs. Bonds
    • World vs. Domestic Mutual Fund Flows
    • Measuring The Public’s Unrealized Profits
    • How Big Is The Stock Market?
    • Corporate Yield Curves’ Warnings
    • Corporate Yield Curve And OAS
    • Comparing The Stock Market To The Bond Market
    • How Big Are Commodity Index Funds?
    • The Commodity Index Traders’ Report
    • Lumber Market Points Housing Lower Still
    • Modeling TIPS Breakevens?
    • A Different View Of The Surge In Corporate Profits
    • Why Consumer Confidence Is A Meaningless Economic Indicator
    • 2 Year Note Futures: Large Speculators Sell Aggressively
    • Corporate Bond Option-Adjusted Spread

    Long Term Outlook

    • 93 Years Of Measuring The Probability of a Recession