US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed at 4.16% today. Looking at the week, we have a 1st weekly support zone at 4.22% – 4.23% (80% shot to hold) and a 2nd weekly support zone at 4.275% – 4.285% (90% shot to hold).
- We have a new 1st monthly support zone of 4.245% – 4.27%.
- Our 1st weekly resistance zone is 4.12% – 4.13% (60% shot to hold) and our 2nd weekly resistance zone is 4.085% – 4.095%.
- Our 1st monthly resistance zone is 4.035% – 4.065% (60% shot to hold).
- Fed’s Kashkari: Says Rates May Be Pretty Close to Neutral Now
Daily Total US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 1/06/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $26.91 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $11.50 million.
Jim Bianco Joins Bloomberg to Discuss the US Treasury market, inflation risks and the changing dynamics of the Federal Reserve for 2026
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
*US DEC. ISM MANUFACTURING AT 14-MONTH LOW OF 47.9; EST. 48.4
The headline above says ISM is at a 14-month low. But the chart above shows that the 47.9 level has been average since 2022.What does it mean for GDP? As this chart shows, the sub-50 level has occurred with many healthy green bars (decent GDP), so it is not a “warning” of a slowdown.
In the News
AI-CIO.com: Institutional Investors See Resilience in Fixed Income
OilPrice: U.S. Oil Blockade Forces Venezuela’s PDVSA to Slash Production
ZeroHedge: Silver: Dept. of War to Build Metals Refinery in Blow to China
Reuters: US awards $2.7 billion worth of orders to boost uranium enrichment
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/06/2026 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 1/06/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global U.S. Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 1/07/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/07/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Releases Dec. 26 and Jan. 2 Week Ending Reports on Jan. 7
- 1/07/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings/Rate / JOLTS Layoffs Level/Rate
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders/Ex Trans
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders/Ex Transportation
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef ex Air/Cap goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 1/08/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 1/08/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 1/08/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 1/08/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Private Payrolls / Manufacturing Payrolls
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / All Employees
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Census Releases Sept – Oct Housing Starts
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits / Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM
- 1/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 1/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 1/09/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 1/09/2026 at 01:35pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Outlook Speech
- 1/12/2026 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Participates in a Fireside Chat
- 1/12/2026 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks