US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed today at 4.17%. Our 1st weekly support zone is 4.22% – 4.23% (63% shot to hold) and our 2nd weekly support zone is 4.275% – 4.285% (50% shot to hold).
- Our 1st monthly support zone is 4.245% – 4.27% (57% to hold).
- We have a 1st weekly resistance zone of 4.12% – 4.13% (83% shot to hold).
- Fed’s Barkin: Sees ‘Delicate Balance’ as He Waits for New Data
- Fed’s Miran: Says More 100 Basis Points of Cuts Needed in 2026
Bloomberg: The Fed’s Six Big Challenges in 2026
Daily Total US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 1/05/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $28.59 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $11.19 million.
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Every recession/financial crisis changes the economy. Change is not worse, it different. It changed again post COVID (blue) and inflation has avg 4.2%. 2.7% is still higher than in most periods of the previous recovery (red) and above the average inflation rate during the post 9/11 recovery (green).
In the News
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Reuters: China buys more US soybeans, total purchases near 10 million tons
FarmProgress: Paved over: America’s tech bet is reshaping farm country
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/07/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/07/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Releases Dec. 26 and Jan. 2 Week Ending Reports on Jan. 7
- 1/07/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings/Rate / JOLTS Layoffs Level/Rate
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders/Ex Trans
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders/Ex Transportation
- 1/07/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef ex Air/Cap goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 1/08/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/08/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 1/08/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 1/08/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 1/08/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Private Payrolls / Manufacturing Payrolls
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / All Employees
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Census Releases Sept – Oct Housing Starts
- 1/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits / Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM
- 1/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 1/09/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 1/09/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 1/09/2026 at 01:35pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Outlook Speech
- 1/12/2026 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Participates in a Fireside Chat
- 1/12/2026 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks
- 1/13/2026 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 1/13/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 1/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / YoY
- 1/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Core CPI MoM / YoY / Core CPI Index SA
- 1/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 1/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Sept – Oct New Home Sales Reports
- 1/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / MoM
- 1/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on MNI Webcast
- 1/13/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 1/13/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Barkin in Moderated Conversation