US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed today at 4.17%. Our 1st weekly support zone is 4.20% – 4.22% (81% shot to hold) and our 2nd weekly support zone is 4.30% – 4.31% (90% shot to hold).
- Our 1st monthly support zone is 4.245% – 4.27% (67% shot to hold).
- We have a 1st weekly resistance zone of 4.12% – 4.14% (56% shot to hold).
- Fed’s Musalem: Says Rates Well Positioned For Risks on Both Sides
Join Us Thursday, January 15th, for our Next Conference Call Featuring Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco joins CNN to discuss the Relationship between the President and the Federal Reserve
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
While Trump is expected to lose the case, because he’s been portraying tariffs as a tax and Congress has not passed a tax bill with tariffs, the big question is whether the court will order that all tariffs already paid refunded.
The betting market is leaning towards no refund at 42%. But 42% is not a high conviction.
I don’t think they will order a refund because it would cause a significant economic disruption, and the court would be blamed for it. Yes, I’m arguing they are political. So I think they’ll rule the tariffs are unconstitutional because Congress did not pass a tax bill with them, and then say Congress has the ability to remedy this problem so they should fix it and the court won’t order a refund.
In the News
Reuters: U.S. Bancorp deepens capital markets presence with up to $1 billion BTIG buy
The American Bazaar: January layoffs begin: Citigroup to cut 1,000 jobs this week
SupplyChainBrain: Airbus Expects Supply Woes to Drive More Engine Shortages in 2026
Bloomberg: Why AI Data Centers in Space Aren’t Totally Science Fiction
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/14/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / PPM Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM / PPI Final Demand YoY
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 1/14/2026 at 08:30am EST: Current Account Balance
- 1/14/2026 at 09:50am EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 1/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Miran Speaks in Athens
- 1/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 1/14/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 1/14/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Virtual Town Hall
- 1/14/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion
- 1/14/2026 at 02:10pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Opening Remarks
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 1/15/2026 at 08:35am EST: Fed’s Bostic Delivers Remarks at Metro Atlanta Chamber
- 1/15/2026 at 09:15am EST: Fed’s Barr in Penal Discussion on Stablecoins
- 1/15/2026 at 12:40pm EST: Fed’s Tom Barkin Speaks on Virginia Economic Outlook
- 1/15/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 1/15/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 1/16/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Capacity Utilization
- 1/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 1/16/2026 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 1/16/2026 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote Address
- 1/17/2026 – 1/29/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout