US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed today at 4.14%. Our 1st weekly resistance zone is 4.12% – 4.14% (83% shot to hold). Our second weekly resistance zone is 4.05% – 4.06% (90% shot to hold).
- Our 1st monthly resistance zone is 4.035% – 4.065% (83% shot to hold) which has held for 10 months.
- Our 1st weekly support zone is 4.20% – 4.22% (90% shot to hold).
- Fed’s Paulson: Repeats She Sees Modest Rate Cuts Later in 2026
- Fed’s Miran: Adds Deregulation to His Argument for Rate Cuts
- Fed’s Beige Book: Shows Economy Picking Up, Employment Unchanged
Join Us Tomorrow, January 15th, for our Next Conference Call Featuring Jim Bianco
US Treasury and Agency Fails
As of 1/13/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $21.73 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $35.64 million.
In the News
OilPrice: Shipping Firms Scrambling to Expand Capacity for Venezuela Oil Transfers
To hear the latest on Venezuelan Oil, take a listen to our latest Arbor Data Science Podcast featuring Sam Rines
Arbor Data Science: Digging into Venezuela’s Oil Opportunity
SupplyChainBrain: Logistics Sector Growth Slows as ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Emerges
Axios: The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 1/15/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 1/15/2026 at 08:35am EST: Fed’s Bostic Delivers Remarks at Metro Atlanta Chamber
- 1/15/2026 at 09:15am EST: Fed’s Barr in Penal Discussion on Stablecoins
- 1/15/2026 at 12:40pm EST: Fed’s Tom Barkin Speaks on Virginia Economic Outlook
- 1/15/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 1/15/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 1/16/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Capacity Utilization
- 1/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 1/16/2026 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 1/16/2026 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote Address
- 1/17/2026 – 1/29/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 1/21/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/21/2026 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Sept – Oct Construction Spending on Jan 21
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM / Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY