US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed on Thursday (1/15/26) at 4.16%.
- Our 1st weekly resistance zone through tomorrow (Friday, 1/16/26) is 4.12% – 4.14% (89% shot to hold). Our second weekly resistance zone through Friday is 4.05% – 4.06% (75% shot to hold).
- Our 1st monthly resistance zone is 4.035% – 4.065% (73% shot to hold) which has held for 10 months.
- Our 1st weekly support zone through tomorrow (Friday) is 4.20% – 4.22% (90% shot to hold).
- Fed’s Goolsbee: says inflation could come ‘roaring back’ if central bank independence goes away and says taming inflation ‘most’ important thing
- Fed’s Daly: says growth projections solid, job market stabilizing
- Fed’s Barr: sees DOJ Probe as an “Assault” on Fed, Yahoo Finance Says
- Fed’s Barkin: says stretched consumers limit retail pricing power
- Fed’s Paulson: says rate cuts can wait, shows support for Powell
- Fed’s Schmid: says policy should be restrictive to curb inflation
Bloomberg: MUFG Named Primary Dealer for Treasury Auctions by New York Fed
Conference Call Replay
Intraday Commentary From Bianco Research
Remind me again why the Fed rate 75 basis points this fall, and including in December?
Oh yeah, they are worried that the labor market is falling apart. This stat says it’s doing the opposite.
In the News
OilPrice: U.S. Sells First Venezuela Oil Cargo for $500 Million
CNBC: Underwater car trade-ins are on the rise – and drivers owe a record amount, Edmund finds
The Economist: The race for copper has brought a wave of mining mega-mergers
Insurance Journal: Two Big California Home Insurers to Raise Rates by 6.9%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/16/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM
- 1/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Capacity Utilization
- 1/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Collins Delivers Welcoming Remarks
- 1/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 1/16/2026 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
- 1/16/2026 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote Address
- 1/17/2026 – 1/29/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 1/21/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/21/2026 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Sept – Oct Construction Spending on Jan 21
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 1/21/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM / Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: BEA to Release Oct-Nov Personal Income on Jan 22
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / Personal Consumption / GDP Price Index
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ / Initial Jobless Claims
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 1/22/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price index MoM and YoY / Core PCE Price Index MoM and YoY
- 1/22/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity