US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s UST 10y range: 4.55% – 4.615%, closing at 4.60%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
$20 billion UST 10y TIPS Auction tomorrow, Thursday, 1/16/25
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
From our Arbor Data Science Desk: Examining Bitcoin
Bloomberg: Crypto Bolstered by US SEC’s Move to Start Regulatory Task Force
Bitcoin and the wider crypto market held gains sparked by the launch of a Securities and Exchange Commission task force on US digital-asset regulations, part of President Donald Trump’s wider embrace of the sector.
In Other News…
OilPrice: Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes
US oil drilling activity has dropped to near post-pandemic lows due to low oil prices and cost inflation, with the rig count falling for over two years.
Bloomberg: Hedge Fund Clients Pulled $7 Billion From Elite Money Manager Since 2021
Clients of Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group pulled roughly $7 billion from the hedge fund in the past three years, losing patience with the famed value investor after a decade of lackluster returns.
Fox2Now: Allstate to raise Illinois home insurance rates by over 14%
The new price hike comes after the company implemented a 12% raise last year. Allstate says reasons for the hike include an increase in severe weather and higher repair prices. State Farm increased its rates by about 12% last May and says it does not plan to raise them this year.
Arbor Data Science:
FarmProgress: 3 reasons why the Iowa farmland market is bouncing back
FARMLAND BOUNCEBACK: Federal payments, strong exports and a favorable January USDA report has fueled firmer farmland prices.
AllWorkSpace: Looming Mass Deportations Could Leave U.S. Farms With Labor Crisis
About half of hired farmworkers nationwide lack legal immigration status, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and farm trade groups have warned deporting them could bring the country’s food production to a halt.
MarketWatch: Americans buy $900 billion a year in stuff from Mexico and Canada. Tariffs could affect these prices the most.
Americans buy $900 billion a year in food, cars, TVs, toys, appliances and other stuff from Mexico and Canada — and the cost of these products could rise if President Trump carries out his threat to apply 25% tariffs.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims
- 1/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 1/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 1/24/2025 at 09:00am EST: Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
- 1/24/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI/US Services PMI/US Composite PMI
- 1/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions & U. of Mich. Expectations
- 1/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 1/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
- 1/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 1/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 1/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales & New Home Sales MoM
- 1/27/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 1/27/2025: Building Permits & Building Permits MoM
- 1/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders & Durable Ex Transportation
- 1/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air & Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 1/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 1/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM and YoY
- 1/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY
- 1/28/2025 at 09:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 1/28/2025 at 09:30am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence/Present Situation/Expectation
- 1/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index/Business Conditions
- 1/29/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance
- 1/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 1/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Inventories MoM
- 1/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 1/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate