US Treasuries
- UST 10s on Tuesday closed at 4.225%.
- Looking ahead for the week, we have a 1st weekly resistance zone of 4.20% – 4.205% (60% shot to hold) and a 2nd weekly resistance zone of 4.155% – 4.16% (50% shot to hold).
- We have a 1st weekly support zone of 4.285% – 4.29% (60% shot to hold).
- On Deck tomorrow, Wednesday, 1/28/26:
- $44 billion UST 7y Note Auction
- FOMC Rate Decision
Bloomberg: The Debasement Trade Is a Real Worry for Scott Bessent
The four finalists total 89.8%, or 10.2% that it will be someone else. Sell all four and bet it is someone else (all the contracts go to zero)? Or buy all four (costing 89.8), betting one of the finalists gets the job (100), and the rest go to zero?
The old age problem … level or rate of change. The public is screaming about affordability because home prices are too high (below). But the rate of change (map above) has slowed down. This begs the question, what is the state of housing?
The public would say prices are too high and the chart above is not nearly enough. The public does not want housing stimulated .. if it means higher prices. Economists hyperventilate about the chart above and say the Fed has to cut. They think housing needs to be stimulated.
U.S. Treasury and Agency Fails
As of 1/26/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $20.66 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $27.16 million.
In the News
SupplyChainBrain: U.S. Deep Freeze Wreaks Havoc on Texas Oil Producers, Refiners
ARTEMIS.bm: U.S winter storm could contribute to aggregate erosion for certain cat bonds: Twelve Securis
Arbor Data Science: Once Again, CAT Bonds Perform. Do you Own Any?
Sam Rines: Cat bonds have gone from a rather novel and niche market to a significant and real asset class with scale. For insurers and reinsurers, it’s capital markets capacity. For investors, it is an opportunity to harvest premium that is not driven by GDP prints, central bank dot, or the market mood swings.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/17/2026 – 1/29/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 1/27/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 1/27/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 1/27/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / US HPI YoY NSA
- 1/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
- 1/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
- 1/27/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 1/28/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
- 1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
- 1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durable Goods Ex Transportation
- 1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM / PPI Final Demand YoY
- 1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 1/30/2026 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 1/30/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Policy
- 2/02/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 2/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 2/02/2026 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economy and Policy
- 2/02/2026 at 03:00pm EST: US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
