US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s UST 10y range: 4.51% – 4.59%, closing at 4.55%
Reuters: Fed entering tough period for measuring money market liquidity
The Federal Reserve, which wraps up its latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, is about to enter one of the more challenging periods of managing what most observers believe is the approaching endgame for its balance sheet drawdown.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
From our Arbor Data Science Desk:
A preview to tomorrow’s post on Commercial Real Estate Occupancy
The Washington Post: How many federal workers will be affected by Trump’s return-of-office policy?
Many federal agencies have a percentage of their workforce eligible to work from home, although the percentage of employees eligible for telework varies by agency.
Stay tuned as Arbor Data Science continues to examine and analyze this topic.
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE
*FED: UNEMPLOYMENT ‘STABILIZED,’ LABOR MARKET REMAINS ‘SOLID
‘*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO INFLATION MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL
2-year reaction
Probability of a rate cut in MAY now 50/50
Hold in January … done; Hold in March 77% (23% cut); Hold in May 50% (50% cut)
If the Fed does not cut by May, I would argue the cutting cycle ended in December.
10-year yield reaction
Still above the .382 retracement … the trend is STILL higher.
Tick chart of the S&P 500. The vertical drop on the left was Monday morning’s “Deepseek sell-off.”
As of this writing, the S&P 500 rebound since Monday’s low is testing the .618 retracement.
Three-hour 10-year yield chart. Up on inflation wording change, down on Timiraos question and his tweet.
In Other News…
Arbor Data Science: Checking in on Homebuilders
The latest in Supply Chain news…
FreightWaves: CN, IBEW reach tentative agreement, avoid strike
Canadian National and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers of Canada have reached a tentative agreement on a new four-year contract, averting a strike that was slated to begin Tuesday.
ZeroHedge: US, British Commercial Ships Cautiously Return to Red Sea as Gaza Truce Holds
American and British vessels are cautiously returning to the Red Sea as the Gaza truce and prisoner exchange deal continues to hold. Starting last week Yemen’s Houthi movement made clear that it would honor the ceasefire, and refrain from attacking international vessels in the Red Sea so long as Israel bides by the ceasefire.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 1/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
- 1/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
- 1/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 1/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims
- 1/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 1/30/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM and YoY
- 1/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Bowman Speaks on Economy, Banks
- 1/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index & Personal Income
- 1/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 1/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 1/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 1/31/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 2/03/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 2/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM & ISM Manufacturing
- 2/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Prices Paid & ISM Prices Orders & ISM Employment
- 2/03/2025 at 12:30pm EST: Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 2/03/2025 at 6:30pm EST: Musalem Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 2/03/2025 at Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 2/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Opening & Factory Orders
- 2/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders Ex Trans & Durable Goods Orders
- 2/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Durables Ex Transportation & Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air & Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 2/04/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bostic Speaks in Moderated Conversation on Housing
- 2/04/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Daly Speaks in Moderated Panel
- 2/05/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 2/05/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 2/05/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance
- 2/05/2025 at 09:00am EST: Barkin Speaks at Fireside Chat
- 2/05/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 2/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index & ISM Services New Orders
- 2/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Employment & ISM Services Prices Paid
- 2/05/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Goolsbee Gives Remarks at Auto Conference