US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 3.995% – 4.045%, closing at 4.04%
- Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.59% – 4.64%, closing at 4.64%
- Fed’s Miran: Says Trade Uncertainty Makes Rate Cuts More Urgent
- Fed’s Waller: Says No Doubt AI Will Boost GDP, National Income
- Fed’s Beige Book: Finds US Economic Activity Little Changed
Jim Bianco
The September CPI was supposed to be released today. Instead, it will be released on October 24, even if the government shutdown is not over. What follows are a couple of private sector data series to get a handle on inflation.
The bottom line is that the Fed is currently ignoring the problem because it wants to cut rates.
Daily CPI Measures: Two websites that scrape the internet for prices and compile a type of daily CPI are Truflation and Pricestats. The scrape millions of prices from websites like Amazon and Walmart.
The following chart aligns three measures from Pricestats and Truflation to April 2 at 0% (Liberation Day, the vertical dotted line). It shows the period before and after.
- The red line is from PriceStats, and it shows the prices of products that originated in China. It is rising at a 4.53% annualized rate.
- The blue line is also from PriceStats, and it shows the prices of all products affected by tariffs. It is rising at a 3.32% annualized rate.
- The black line is from Truflation, and it shows the prices of all products on the internet (about 13 million items). It is rising at a 3.24% annualized rate.
Jim Bianco Joins Fox Business to discuss the End of QT, Federal Reserve Cuts, Housing Markets & Silver with Charles Payne
In the News
Bloomberg: ETF Inflows Smash $1 Trillion Mark in Fastest Run on Record
Reuters: BlackRock, Nvidia-backed group strikes $40 billion AI data center deal
Newsweek: Florida Housing Market Changes Direction
You heard it here first… Arbor Data Science on October 6, 2025: The Florida Housing Market Shift
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM and YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM and YoY
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM and YoY
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 10/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Ag / Continuing Claims
- 10/16/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
- 10/16/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Stablecoins
- 10/16/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
- 10/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Stress Testing Research Conference
- 10/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 10/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 10/16/2025 at 04:15pm EST: Fed’s Governor Stephen Miran in Moderated Discussion
- 10/16/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Town Hall in South Dakota
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts & Building Permits
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Permits MoM
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 10/17/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown
- 10/17/2025 at 12:15pm EST: Fed’s Musalem in Fireside Chat at IIF
- 10/17/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows & Total Net TIC Flows
- 10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 10/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 10/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 10/22/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / Core CPI MoM / CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / Core CPI Index SA
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Thursday, October 16, 2025
Before the Open
After the Close
