US Treasuries
- Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 3.97% – 4.05%, closing at 3.975%
- Thursday’s range for UST 30y: 4.58% – 4.64%, closing at 4.58%
- Fed’s Miran: Says He Would Favor Half-Point Interest Rate Cut
- Fed’s Waller: Calls for Careful Cuts, Miran Wants Bigger Move
- Fed’s Barr: Calls For More Regulation to Boost Stablecoin Trust
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
*US 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.42%, LOWEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2022
While it is headline-grabbing to note that the two-year yield (blue) is making a new 3+ year low, see the bottom panel: the two-year fund yield spread (red). This chart starts on the day Silicon Valley Bank failed in March of 2023.
It shows that the 2-year-to-funds spread, now at 70 bps, is near its average of the last 2 1/2 years (63 bps). The Fed has cut rates 125 bps (five 25 bps cuts) since September of 2024, and has a 97% chance it’s going to cut another 25 bps at the end of this month (orange). The two-year yield should be at a 3+ year low because that’s what it would take to keep the 2-year/funds spread at its 2 1/2 year average.
To restate what I wrote above, the two-year note is now at the lowest level since September 2022.The Fed is expected to cut rates at the end of this month and again in December.
At the end of the month, the funds rate will be at its lowest level since December 2022.
In other words, the two-year is just discounting where we all know the funds rate is going.
In the News
CNBC: Regional banks, Jefferies shares tank as concerns about sour loans grow on Wall Street
Reuters: Health insurance premiums are going up next year – unless you work at these companies
FarmPolicyNews: Immigration Crackdown Hurting Ag, Labor Dept. Concedes
RedfinNews: New Listings Creep Up As Would-Be Homebuyers Back Off, Haunted by High Prices and Economic Unease
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
US Economic Data Releases Delayed by Government Shutdown:
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts & Building Permits
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Permits MoM
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY
- 10/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 10/17/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown
- 10/17/2025 at 12:15pm EST: Fed’s Musalem in Fireside Chat at IIF
- 10/17/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows & Total Net TIC Flows
- 10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 10/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 10/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 10/22/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 10/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Home Sales MoM
- 10/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 10/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / Core CPI MoM / CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / Core CPI Index SA
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Friday, 10/17/25
Before the Open
