US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 3.93% – 4.01%, closing at 4.005%
- Weekly range for UST 10y: 3.93% – 4.065%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.545% – 4.61%, closing at 4.60%
- Weekly range for UST 30y: 4.545% – 4.655%
- Fed’s Musalem: Could Support Another Cut, Policy Not Preset
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Wall Street is really good at (over)analyzing symptoms, while not recognizing the causes. The banking system “cause” is a liquidity squeeze. The symptom is credit announcements that bother the markets.
I try to explain this in today’s lead post.
While there was no borrowing for the standing Repo Facility this morning, SOFR did make a new 5-year high yesterday. The last time SOFR traded 30 bps above RRP was March 17, 2020. (Exceptions are month and year-end, when it regularly spikes for window-dressing purposes.) We are not at a month or year-end now.
Here is a short-term look.
Bad news … Funding markets are still stressed.
Good news … The stress did not worsen today.
In the News
Bloomberg: Fed’s Policy Benchmark Rate Rises for Third Time in a Month
Reuters: ADM seeks to lure soy sales from US farmers as prices languish, sources say
ZeroHedge: Trump “Worked Magic” on Beef Deal – Likely With Argentina – As Cattle Futures Surge Most since 1978
Arbor Data Science: A Bump in Beef Prices
The Guardian: ‘Finances are getting tighter’: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans
TIPS by Maturity (data through 10/08/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $19.0 Bn on 10/01/25 to $20.2 Bn on 10/08/25 = $1.2 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: ($104 Mn) on 10/01/25 to ($419 Mn) on 10/08/25 = ($315 Mn)
- 6 – 11 years: $4.9 Bn on 10/01/25 to $5.3 Bn on 10/08/25 = ($0.4 Bn)
- > 11 years: $738 Mn on 10/01/25 to $567 Mn on 10/08/25 = ($171 Mn)
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
US Economic Data Releases Delayed by Government Shutdown:
- 10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 10/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 10/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 10/22/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 10/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Home Sales MoM
- 10/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 10/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / Core CPI MoM / CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / Core CPI Index SA
- 10/24/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Homes Sales / MoM
- 10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 10/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 10/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
- 10/24/2025: Building Permits / MoM
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, 10/20/25
Before the Open
After the Close
