End of Day Summary – 10/22/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 3.935% – 3.97%, closing at 3.945%
Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.52% – 4.555%, closing at 4.53%

Fed’s Waller: a Top Fed Chair Contender, Backs Rate Cuts Without Bowing to Trump
Bloomberg: Fed Floats Plan With Much Small Capital Hikes for Big Banks
Bloomberg: Fed’s Loss of ADP Labor Statistics Adds to Data Vacuum

Join Us Tomorrow, Thursday (10/23/25) for our Next Conference Call Featuring Jim Bianco

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

On the margin, for the last repo borrower, funding rates are above 4.25%. This is why the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is being used (because it offers at 4.25%). Also, since it is getting used, it means one of the 40 borrowers (list of the chart) is seeing, on certain days, that they cannot get funding at less than 4.25%.

I have been careful with my wording … this is a WORRY and not a CRISIS. But the longer this remains a WORRY, the bigger the concern becomes (or the closer it moves toward a CRISIS).

What is the two-year signaling? The Fed is going to cut the funds rate to 3.5% or so and stop. The chart below shows the number of Fed moves fed funds futures have priced in over the next year (red) and next two years (blue). The spread in the bottom panel shows how many moves are expected between 12 and 24 months.

This chart suggests the Fed cycle should be over in the next 12 months as the number of Fed moves expected from 12 to 24 months is effectively zero. Presumably the two-year to funds rate spread will then close to zero around 3.5%.

All of this is what the market thinks NOW. It can change its opinion in either direction at any time. Friday’s release of September’s CPI COULD BE one of those events that cause it to change opinion.

In the News

OilPrice: Inside the Hidden Oil Glut

Arbor Data Science: Oil Prices Dripping Lower as Advertised

Reuters: Tesla to recall nearly 13,000 US vehicles over battery risk

CBS News: Auto manufacturer Dana Inc. closes Auburn Hills plant, cites “lower demand” for EVs

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

US Economic Data Releases Delayed by Government Shutdown:

10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Delayed by Government Shutdown
10/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
10/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Home Sales MoM
10/23/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
10/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / Core CPI MoM / CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / Core CPI Index SA
10/24/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Homes Sales / MoM
10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
10/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
10/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
10/24/2025 at 11:00am EST: Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/24/2025: Building Permits / MoM
10/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
10/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Good Orders Nondef ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
10/27/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA; YoY NSA
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
10/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
10/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
10/28/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
10/29/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance / Exports MoM SA / Imports MoM SA
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Inventories MoM
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / NSA YoY
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (Lower Bound)
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate