End of Day Summary – 10/24/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Friday’s range for UST 10y: 3.96% – 4.01%, closing at 3.995%
Weekly range for UST 10y: 3.935% – 4.02%
Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.55% – 4.60%, closing at 4.58%
Weekly range for UST 10y: 4.52% – 4.615%

Bloomberg: The Bond Market’s Favorite Recession Signal Is on the Fritz

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

Bloomberg and Goldman are both collecting state unemployment claims data and applying seasonal adjustment. They both got the same numbers. Seasonally adjusted

227k the week ending October 18
220k the week ending October 11

The last data point released by the BLS was the week of September 26 at 219k (chart). So, very little change in this series … suggesting this measure is not showing weakening in the last month.

Bloomberg: Inflation Bond Market Faces ‘Debt-Limit Equivalent’ in CPI Delay

TIPS by Maturity (data through 10/15/25)

Week over Week Changes by Maturity

< 2 years: $20.2 Bn on 10/08/25 to $20.8 Bn on 10/15/25 = $0.6 Bn
2 – 6 years: ($419 Mn) on 10/08/25 to ($443 Mn) on 10/15/25 = ($24 Mn)
6 – 11 years: $5.3 Bn on 10/08/25 to $5.5 Bn on 10/15/25 = $0.2 Bn
> 11 years: $567 Mn on 10/08/25 to $609 Mn on 10/15/25 = $42 Mn

In the News

OilPrice: Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Fourth-Largest Refinery, Disrupting 80,000 bpd

Bloomberg: Gold and Bonds Are Heading for Record-Breaking Inflows This Year

Arbor Data Science: Gold Will History Repeat Itself?

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

US Economic Data Releases Delayed by Government Shutdown:

10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
10/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
10/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Good Orders Nondef ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
10/27/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA; YoY NSA
10/28/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
10/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
10/28/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
10/28/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
10/29/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance / Exports MoM SA / Imports MoM SA
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Inventories MoM
10/29/2025 at 08:30am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / NSA YoY
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (Lower Bound)
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
10/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & GDP Annualized QoQ
10/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg & Personal Consumption
10/30/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims & GDP Price Index & Core PCE Price index QoQ
10/30/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference
10/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
10/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
10/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY & Employment Cost Index
10/31/2025 at 08:30am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
10/31/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference, Day 2
10/31/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack ad Bostic Speak at Bank Funding Conference