End of Day Summary – 10/27/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Monday’s range for UST 10y: 3.99% – 4.04%, closing at 3.995%
Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.565% – 4.63%, closing at 4.57%
Tomorrow, Tuesday, October 28th: $44 billion 7y Note Auction
Wednesday, October 29th: FOMC Rate Decision

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

Bonds Volatility continues to slump.

In my opinion, volatility, and especially bond volatility, is among the most mean-reverting of all things in finance. What this means is the natural instinct SHOULD be to sell high volatility and buy low volatility.

Here is the entire history of the MOVE Index. The average is 92. Last is 69, well below the long-term average.

The period from 2012 to 2021, when the MOVE Index spent much of the time below 60, was also the period of zero interest rates and QE. Rates are now 4% (and about to be cut again this week) and QT is ongoing (which may be nearing an end).The point is this is NOT 2012 to 2021.The period from 2012 to 2021, when the MOVE Index spent much of the time below 60, was also the period of zero interest rates and QE. Rates are now 4% (and about to be cut again this week) and QT is ongoing (which may be nearing an end). The point is this is NOT 2012 to 2021.

Mark Halperin, Dan Tarrentine, and Sean Spicer host a daily political show on YouTube called “2Way.” These three are VERY plugged into DC and offer good insights. The show just ended, and they said exactly what I said this morning about the next Fed chair …The choices are (in order):

Scott Bessent
Kevin Hassett
Someone else not on the list (or “Door #3” as they termed it)

In other words, they are still trying to twist Bessent’s arm to take the job. If he does not, then it is either Hassett or find someone else. They agreed that the “someone else” COULD BE Stephen Miran (as he is not on the list of five that Bessent said this morning).

We had a story about it in “What We’re Reading” today (in the middle) with this chart.

Note that Hassett is leading, but at only 36% (so well below 50%), and all the top five. Bessent suggested this morning only add up to ~82%. This suggests a low conviction in all these names.

Restated, no one is a real leader at this point. This is consistent with what was said on “2Way.”

The dollar is decoupling from interest rates in a bullish way. It should be going lower as rates fall, but it is not. There never was a debasement trade, just like their never was a loss of American Exceptionalism trade.

In the News

Reuters: Exclusive: Amazon targets as many as 30,000 corporate job cuts, sources say

Meatingplace: Brazil-US Trade Truce Could Restore Beef Trade

FarmProgress: China agrees to make ‘substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans, treasury secretary says

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Fed Speak

10/18/2025 – 10/30/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (Lower Bound)
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
10/29/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
10/30/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference
10/31/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference, Day 2
10/31/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack ad Bostic Speak at Bank Funding Conference