US Treasuries
- Treasury yields climbed higher (led by the short-end) after Powell cast doubt on a December rate cut
- Wednesday’s range for UST 2y: 3.485% – 3.605%, closing at 3.57%
- Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 3.97% – 4.07%, closing at 4.045%
- Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.53% – 4.61%, closing at 4.59%
Bloomberg: Fed Cuts Rates Quarter Point, With Dissents on Both Sides
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
2.5% for a rate cut in December. It was 95% yesterday. 2 year up 12 bps.
*POWELL: INDEED JOB OPENINGS SUGGEST MARKET STABLE LAST 4 WEEKS
The chart below shows the series. Powell must be looking at the “not seasonally adjusted” season as the seasonally adjusted series does not suggest “stable.”
Yesterday, SOFR (blue) was 16 basis points above Interest on Reserves (orange).
As the dotted line and box show, SOFR has effectively “undone” the first rate cut in September. As this arrow in the bottom panel shows, funding market rates are tightening. And the Fed announced another month of QT, which will continue squeezing these markets.
Where will this spread be on November 30? Will today’s second cut get “undone” as well?
In the News
Bloomberg: Copper Hits a Record as Supply Snarls Set the Stage for Deficits
FarmPolicyNews: China Purchases First US Soybeans of the Season
InsuranceBusiness: Florida’s home insurance market is collapsing, research says
Car Dealership Guy:
Intellizense Insights: Layoff Tracker 2025 – Recent Layoffs of the Week
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Fed Speak
- 10/30/2025 at 09:55am EST: Fed’s Bowman Gives Pre-Recorded Remarks
- 10/30/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference
- 10/31/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference, Day 2
- 10/31/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack ad Bostic Speak at Bank Funding Conference
Upcoming Earnings Releases on Thursday, October 30, 2025
Before the Open
After the Close
