End of Day Summary – 10/30/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 4.055% – 4.115%, closing at 4.095%
Thursday’s range for UST 30y: 4.61% – 4.66%, closing at 4.65%

Bloomberg: Fed Balance-Sheet Decision Cements Funds Rate as Preferred Tool

Intraday Commentary From Bianco Research

Jim Bianco: Repost Bill Gross from last night …

As highlighted on the chart below, the 10-year yield has been in a down channel since hitting 4.62% on May 22.

If Gross is correct and the 10-year yield rises to 4.25% in the short-term, it will exceed its 4.20% “lower high” in late September and mark the first “higher high” in six months.

Should a “higher high” happen, that would mean the highlighted downtrend ended on October 17 at 3.93%.

As I write, the 10-year is trading 4.09% up 11 basis points over the last 24 hours and 11 basis points away from a “higher high.” So, halfway there in less than one day.

Greg Blaha: Another issue that is not helping liquidity…the TGA is now at its largest since May ’22. With the increase in bill issuance, some banks have said the TGA must be larger than the usual $850B target of the last few years in order to ensure the Treasury has adequate operating room. I have seen estimates of $950B as a safe level, but clearly we have already blown past that.

Jim Bianco: Regarding the TGA chart above, the Treasury General Account (TGA) is the Federal government’s “checking account” held at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Government uses it to pay its bills.

The government is shut down, so spending is down. So money is “piling up” in their checking account (TGA) which is why it swelled to a multi-year high. That said, a hundred billion extra dollars in the TGA (which represents a $100 billion drain on liquidity), should not “bother” the funding markets as much as we have seen.

So, I agree with the way Greg termed it … it is “not helping,” but this does not mean funding problems are a function of the Government shutdown. They are much larger.

Money that goes into the TGA is parked at the Fed; it is money “removed” from the financial system or a drain of liquidity. For liquidity purposes, the Fed is separate from the financial system. So, money going into the TGA (its balance rising) is taking money out of the financial system and parking it at the Fed. When the TGA balance falls, that is money outside the financial system (at the Fed) being “re-introduced” to the financial system, or adding liquidity.

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Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Fed Speak

10/31/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference, Day 2
10/31/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack ad Bostic Speak at Bank Funding Conference
11/06/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Williams speaks at Goethe University Frankfurt
11/06/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at the Economic Club of New York
11/06/2025 at 04:30pm EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Consumer Finance Institute
11/06/2025 at 05:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at a Fireside Chat on Monetary Policy

Upcoming Earnings Releases on Friday, October 31, 2025

Before the Open

End of Day Summary – 10/30/2025

Intraday News • October 30, 2025

Edited by Kristen Radosh & Kylie Leverenz

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