US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.11% – 4.175%, closing at 4.125%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.71% – 4.77%, closing at 4.725%
- Tomorrow, Wednesday, 10/8/25: $39 billion 10y Note (Reopening)
- Tomorrow, Wednesday, 10/8/25: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Fed’s Miran: Sees Less Tension in Fed’s Dual Goals Than Counterparts
- Fed’s Kashkari: Warns Drastic Rate Cuts Would Stoke Inflation
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Bloomberg: Carlyle Unveils Proprietary Data Showing Weak US Employment
Jim Bianco: ADP processes payroll for 24 million jobs and can’t get an accurate measure. Now we’re supposed to believe a universe of 700,000 Carlyle-financed companies is going to be more accurate?
What they’re missing is what is shown in the chart below. It shows the total number of jobs created since the pandemic shutdown, now 13.66 million (black line). 3.76 million (28%) are firms with fewer than 19 employees (blue). 1.89 million (14%) are firms with 20 to 49 employees (orange). Combined, 42% of jobs created since 2020 are in firms of less than 50 employees. This is not usual; between 2010 and 2020 (the end of the Great Recession to COVID), 35% of the jobs created were from firms with fewer than 50 employees.
I’m going to guess that Carlyle has very few, if any, portfolio companies with fewer than 50 employees. Job hiring skews toward smaller firms. Without a good measure of these smaller firms, such as new startups (like the so-called birth/death model), all such measures are woefully incomplete.
The alternative jobs data is all over the place … which one is correct?
ADP Research unit publishes an estimate of private-sector payrolls based on 26 million employees. September was -32,000. Carlyle, as noted above, was 17,000 for September. Bloomberg Economics’ forecast for September nonfarm payrolls was for a 54,000 increase.
Revelio Labs makes estimates based on more than 100 million US job profiles that cover two-thirds of the US workforce. In September, Revelio reported an increase of about 60,000.
In the News
Bloomberg: Fed’s Balance Sheet runoff in Focus as Bank Reserves Are Ebbing
globenewswire: Lithium Mining Market Projected to Reach $17 Billion By 2035 as it is Expected to be the Cornerstone of Global Energy Transition
DailyMail: Catastrophic fire cripples US car production – threatening higher prices
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 10/08/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10/08/2025 at 09:20am EST: Fed’s Musalem Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 10/08/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Barr Keynote at Community Banking Research Conference
- 10/08/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 10/08/2025 at 03:15pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Center for Indian Country Development
- 10/08/2025 at 06:30pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari Hosts Fireside Chat with Senator Tina Smith
- 10/08/2025 at 07:45pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Community Development
- 10/09/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 10/09/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed Chair Powell Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 10/09/2025 at 08:35am EST: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Welcoming Remarks
- 10/09/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Bowman Moderates Discussion
- 10/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 10/09/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 10/09/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari and Barr Speak in Conversation
- 10/09/2025 at 03:45pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Speech on Community Banking
- 10/09/2025 at 07:40pm EST: Fed’s Daly at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange
- 10/10/2025 at 09:45am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
- 10/10/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 10/10/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5 – 10 Yr Inflation
- 10/10/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaking at Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce
- 10/10/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 10/13/2025 at 12:10pm EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks at NABE
- 10/14/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 10/14/2025 at 03:30pm EST: Fed’s Collins Speaks to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce