US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s UST 10y range: 4.32% – 4.44%, closing at 4.43%
Bloomberg: US Bond Yields Ratchet Higher Before Influential Inflation Data
Two-year yields — more closely tied to the Fed’s decisions than longer-maturity debt — reached the highest level since July, and three- to 30-year yields rose at least 10 basis points.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Arbor Data Science: Build It and Oil Will Flow By Sam Rines
OilPrice: OPEC Oil Production Jumps by 470,000 Bpd as Libyan Output Returns
Total crude oil production in all 12 OPEC members averaged 26.53 million bpd in October 2024, up by 466,000 bpd compared to September, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report published today.
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
We start the week with a 65% probability of a rate cut on December 18.
CPI is tomorrow, Powell speaks Thursday (with Q&A), and this probability COULD move a lot by the end of the week.
Since the 10-year yield started higher on September 17 (the day before the Fed cut), the highest close (5PM ET) was November 6th (the day after the election), at 4.4315%.
Currently, the 10-year is trading right on this level of 4.4315%.
In Other News…
Arbor Data Science: Commodities Update
Reuters: Return of US drought delays cattle-herd rebuilding, hurting Tyson Foods
The return of drought in U.S. cattle-producing areas is delaying ranchers’ plans to expand production after the nation’s herd shrank to its smallest level in seven decades, farmers and analysts said.
Latest Supply Chain News…
SupplyChainBrain: Canada Labor Minister Orders End to Labor Disputes at Country’s Ports
Canada labor minister Steven MacKinnon has ordered an end to a strike at the Port of Montreal, as well as lockouts at British Columbia container terminals and the Port of Quebec, saying the disputes have dragged on for too long without any sign of resolution.
Newsweek: Suspected Houthi Attack on Ship in Red Sea
Multiple explosions rocked a vessel traveling through the Red Sea on Tuesday in a suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/13/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 11/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: Real Avg. Hourly Earnings YoY & Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY
- 11/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: CPI MoM & CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 11/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: CPI YoY & CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 11/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: CPI Index NSA & CPI Core Index SA
- 11/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: Kashkari Appears in Bloomberg Television
- 11/13/2024 at 9:30am EST: Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 11/13/2024 at 9:45am EST: Logan Gives Opening Remarks at Energy Conference
- 11/13/2024 at 1:00pm EST: Musalem Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy
- 11/13/2024 at 1:30pm EST: Schmid Gives Keynote Remarks at Energy Conference
- 11/13/2024 at 2:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 11/14/2024 at 7:00am EST: Kugler Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 11/14/2024 at 8:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM & PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 11/14/2024 at 8:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM & PPI Final Demand YOY
- 11/14/2024 at 8:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY & PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 11/14/2024 at 8:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
- 11/14/2024 at 9:00am EST: Barkin Discusses Economy in Fireside Chat
- 11/14/2024 at 3:00pm EST: Powell Speaks at Event in Dallas
- 11/14/2024 at 4:15pm EST: Williams Speaks at NYFed Event
- 11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing & Retail Sales Advance MoM
- 11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
- 11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group & Import Price Index MoM
- 11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM & Import Price Index YoY
- 11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 11/15/2024 at 9:00am EST: Collins Gives Opening Remarks
- 11/15/2024 at 9:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization
- 11/15/2024 at 9:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 11/15/2024 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 11/15/2024 at 1:15PM EST: Williams Gives Opening Remarks
- 11/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 11/18/2024 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 11/18/2024 at 10:00am EST: Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
- 11/18/2024 at 4:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows & Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 11/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts & Building Permits
- 11/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Permits MoM