End of Day Summary – 11/14/2024 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Thursday’s UST 10y range: 4.40% – 4.48%, closing at 4.43%

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Arbor Data Science: OER is Not the Only Problem by Sam Rines

Jim Bianco on the Post-Election Phase Shift, Adjusting Inflation Expectations & the Crypto Movement

Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco

What happened to the “cash on the sidelines” is going to power risk markets higher?

“Cash on the sidelines” just keeps growing and growing

*US MONEY-MARKET ASSETS SURPASS $7T FOR FIRST TIME

My argument has always been that this is incorrect thinking.

Cash is on the sidelines in transactional balances. It is money you use to pay your bills; it is not investment money.

It’s growing because money keeps leaving traditional bank accounts, which pay almost no interest rates, for money market accounts, which pay interest rates and offer the same flexibility as a checking account.

Where is the money coming from to swell money market funds?

March 16, 2022 is when the Fed started raising rates.

$1.29 trillion have left banks. Money market funds have gained $1.79 trillion. Effectively, all the bank money plus two years of 5% interest rates can explain nearly all of the gains in Money market funds.

The bulls will argue that the next stop for this money is not to pay the mortgage or monthly car payment but to invest it in Nvidia options or Bitcoin. They are wrong … this is not investment money.

In Other News…

Arbor Data Science: Breaking Down Household Debt

CNBC: Credit card debt among retirees jumps – ‘It’s alarming,’ researcher says

About 68% of retirees had outstanding credit card debt in 2024, up “substantially” from 40% in 2022 and 43% in 2020, according to a new poll by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

In Farmland News…

FarmProgress: Hurricane Helene took $1 billion-plus from Tennessee ag

Total agricultural, forestry and related industry economic losses as of Nov. 4 total $1.351 billion, according to a report released by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing & Retail Sales Advance MoM
11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group & Import Price Index MoM
11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM & Import Price Index YoY
11/15/2024 at 8:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
11/15/2024 at 9:00am EST: Collins Gives Opening Remarks
11/15/2024 at 9:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization
11/15/2024 at 9:15am EST: Manufacturing (SIC) Production
11/15/2024 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
11/15/2024 at 10:30am EST: Collins Appears on Bloomberg TV
11/15/2024 at 1:15pm EST: Williams Gives Opening Remarks
11/16/2024 at 11:55am EST: Collins Gives Closing Remarks
11/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
11/18/2024 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
11/18/2024 at 10:00am EST: Goolsbee Gives Welcome Remarks
11/18/2024 at 4:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows & Net Long-term TIC Flows
11/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts & Building Permits
11/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Permits MoM
11/20/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
11/21/2024 at 8:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
11/21/2024 at 8:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
11/21/2024 at 8:45am EST: Hammack Gives Welcoming Remarks
11/21/2024 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
11/21/2024 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
11/21/2024 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
11/21/2024 at 12:25pm EST: Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
11/21/2024 at 12:30pm EST: Hammack Moderates Conversation

End of Day Summary – 11/14/2024

Intraday News • November 14, 2024

Edited by Kristen Radosh & Kylie Leverenz

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