US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.06% – 4.145%, closing at 4.14%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.665% – 4.75%, closing at 4.74%
- Fed’s Schmidt: Says More Cuts Could Drive Inflation Pressures
- Fed’s Logan: Says Modestly Restrictive Policy Still Appropriate
- Bloomberg: Economic Data Storm to Hit Treasury Market
TIPS Returns by Maturity (data through 11/5/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $20.0 Bn on 10/29/25 to $22.6 Bn on 11/5/2025 = $2.6 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $2.8 Bn on 10/29/25 to ($1.4 Bn) on 11/5/2025 = ($4.2) Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $3.2 Bn on 10/29/25 to $4.9 Bn on 11/5/2025 = $1.7 Bn
- > 11 years: $561 Mn on 10/29/25 to $414 Mn on 11/5/2025 = ($147) Mn
Intraday Commentary From Bianco Research
The market is concluding that “affordability” or inflation is a bigger problem than jobs. The probability that the Fed will cut rates at its December 10th meeting started the week at 70%. It is currently at 42% and still declining.
In the News
Bloomberg: JP Morgan Sees AI Boom Driving Record $1.8 Trillion Bond Sales in 2026
InsuranceBusiness: Amazon Insurance Store: Coming to a state near you?
ZeroHedge: Boeing Union Workers Approve New Contract, Ending 3-Month Strike
Bloomberg: Americans Just Can’t Get Enough Beef
Arbor Data Science: A Bump in Beef Prices
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Fed Speak
- 11/17/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks
- 11/17/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Kashkari Moderates Conversation
- 11/18/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 11/18/2025 at 07:55pm EST: Fed’s Logan Delivers Closing Remarks at Conference
- 11/19/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 11/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 11/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks
- 11/20/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Hammack Delivers Opening Remarks
- 11/20/2025 at 01:40pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Discussion in Indianapolis
- 11/20/2025 at 06:45pm EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 11/21/2025 at 07:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Speech
- 11/21/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Conference in Switzerland
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, November 17, 2025
