End of Day Summary – 11/18/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.085% – 4.135%, closing at 4.12%
Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.705% – 4.75%, closing at 4.74%
Tomorrow: Wednesday, 11/19/25 at 12:00pm EST: $16Bn 20y Bond Auction
Tomorrow: Wednesday, 11/19/25 at 2:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Fed’s Barr: Worries Fed Supervision Retreat May Allow Risks to Build
Fed’s Barkin: Sees Cause for Caution on Labor Market

Bloomberg: You Don’t Need a Burry to Know Which Way the Bubble Blows

James Bianco, head of Bianco Research in Chicago, argues that the impact of all this has been “breaking the 40-year stranglehold the Fed chair has had over committee voting,” leaving members to vote as they see fit. If Miran can ignore groupthink, publish blog posts, and explain himself in numerous interviews, says Bianco, “then why can’t everyone else? The result is 12 truly independent voters.”

The Bank of England regularly sees dissents in both directions, and few other major central banks are as dominated by their chair as the Fed has been since the eras of Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. Bianco thinks this is a positive development:

“The irony is that, by attempting to stack the odds in his favor by appointing his people, Trump may have made the Fed more independent. The next Fed chair has been reduced to just one of 12 votes.”

Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco

Bloomberg: Trump Says He Thinks He Already Knows His Choice For Fed Chair

Jim Bianco: Trump points at Bessent, “He’s not going to take the job; he refused. You like Treasury, right?” Then “will go with a standard name.”

Bessent’s arm-twisting will continue. If unsuccessful, he picks Hassett. Trump is taking someone he knows, Hassett works in the WH.

Hassett (blue) is separating himself from the pack and is on the verge of being the first person to trade over 50%

In the News

OilPrice: OPEC Chief Accuses Media of “Misrepresenting” 2026 Oil Outlook

CNN Business: Home Depot’s business is stuck. That’s a bad sign for the economy

CNBC: Anthropic to buy $30 billion in Azure capacity in new deal with Microsoft, Nvidia

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Update on Economic Releases This Week & Upcoming Fed Speak

11/19/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
11/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
11/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Bank Regulation
11/19/2025 at 12:45pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
11/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks
11/19/2025 After the Close: Nvidia Reports Earnings
11/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims / Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
11/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
11/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change / Unemployment Rate
11/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate / Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY
11/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Underemployment Rate / Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
11/20/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Hammack Delivers Opening Remarks
11/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales
11/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
11/20/2025 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Financial Stability at Georgetown University
11/20/2025 at 01:40pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Discussion in Indianapolis
11/20/2025 at 06:15pm EST: Fed’s Miran Speaks at American Investment Council
11/20/2025 at 06:45pm EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
11/21/2025 at 07:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Speech
11/21/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks at the College Fed Challenge
11/21/2025 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Financial Stability
11/21/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Conference in Switzerland
11/21/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI/ Composite PMI
11/21/2025 at 10:00am EST: U of Mich Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
11/21/2025 at 10:00am EST: U of Mich 1 Yr Inflation / 5 – 10 Yr Inflation
11/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
11/24/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
11/24/2025 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index QoQ
11/24/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / US HPI YoY HSA
11/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
11/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
11/24/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / NSA YoY
11/24/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity