US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s UST 10y range: 4.33% – 4.41%, closing at 4.38%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
From our Arbor Data Science Desk:
WSJ: Car-Loan Delinquencies Aren’t Scaring Off Wall Street
Investors are snapping up bonds tied to car loans, betting that a strong U.S. economy will keep rising delinquency rates in check. Sales of bonds backed by the riskiest auto loans to subprime borrowers hit nearly $40 billion this year through October, up 17% from all of 2023, according to data from JPMorgan Chase.
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco:
Usually, the dollar follows bond yields. The dollar should be down a lot today.
However, the dollar index is actually unchanged on the day because the flight to quality is superseding the drop in yields.
The MOVE may have had it right all along, pricing in elevated volatility post-election.
But it was not election uncertainty leading to protests or the Fed … it was WWIII!
The same chart for the VIX. It is entering this with very low volatility.
In Other News…
Farm Bureau: Avian Influenza Hits Turkeys and Eggs Hardest
With more than 100 million birds affected – and since March 2024, dairy cattle, too – the current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been giving farmers and consumers headaches for nearly three years.
Arbor Data Science: The Sticker Shock of Steak by Sam Rines
Beef Magazine: Fewer cattle, more beef?
Despite cattle inventories declining since their 2019 peak of 94.7 million, beef production in 2024 is expected to exceed 2023 levels… Looking ahead, USDA forecasts a 4% decline in beef production for 2025, consistent with smaller cattle inventories.
Something to Keep an Eye on…
Food Safety News: Will egg, poultry, meat prices rise again because of wastewater regulations?
The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association figures the EPA rule will cost the industry $1.16 billion a year to comply. The association predicts 74 of its facilities will close rather than comply. Potential job losses under those scenarios would run from 127,000 to 317,000 in the poultry sector alone.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/20/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 11/20/2024 at 10:00am EST: Barr Testifies Before House Financial Services Committee
- 11/20/2024 at 11:00am EST: Cook Speaks on Economic Outlook, Policy
- 11/20/2024 at 12:15am EST: Bowman Speaks on Agency Policymaking
- 11/20/2024 at 4:00pm EST: Collins Speaks on Policy, Career
- 11/21/2024 at 8:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 11/21/2024 at 8:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
- 11/21/2024 at 8:45am EST: Hammack Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 11/21/2024 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 11/21/2024 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
- 11/21/2024 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 11/21/2024 at 12:25pm EST: Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 11/21/2024 at 12:30pm EST: Hammack Moderates Conversation
- 11/21/2024 at 4:40pm EST: Barr Discusses Banks and AI
- 11/22/2024 at 9:00am EST: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
- 11/22/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI & S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 11/22/2024 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions & U. of Mich. Expectations
- 11/22/2024 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 11/22/2024 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 11/22/2024 at 6:15pm EST: Bowman Speaks on AI
- 11/25/2024 at 8:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 11/25/2024 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 11/26/2024 at 8:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 11/26/2024 at 9:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM & House Price Purchase Index QoQ
- 11/26/2024 at 9:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA & S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA & S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 11/26/2024 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales & New Home Sales MoM
- 11/26/2024 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence & Conf. Board Present Situation & Conf. Board Expectations
- 11/26/2024 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index & Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 11/26/2024 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 11/26/2024 at 2:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes