US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.03% – 4.09%, closing at 4.06%
- UST 10y range for the week: 4.03% – 4.16%
- Friday’s range for UST 30y: 4.68% – 4.73%, closing at 4.71%
- UST 30y range for the week: 4.685% – 4.77%
- Fed’s Williams: Sees Rooms for an Interest-Rate Cut in “Near Term’
- Fed’s Collins: Signals Current Rates Are ‘Appropriate for Now’
- Fed’s Miran: Says He’d Vote for 25-Bp Cut If It Were the Marginal Vote
- Fed’s Jefferson: Sees Contrasts Between AI Rise and Dot-Com Boom
- Fed’s Logan: Repeats Call for Moving Slowly on Further Rate Cuts
Bloomberg: BLS Axes October CPI Report, Sets Dec. 18 for November Data
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Massive reversal in the last 30 minutes on this headline:
*FED’S WILLIAMS STILL SEES ROOM FOR A NEAR-TERM RATE CUT
Here are the headlines from the Fed Speak yesterday:
- Fed’s Goolsbee Says Uneasy ‘Front Loading’ Cuts Amid Inflation
- Fed Fractures Deepen as Barr Signals Inflation
- Fed’s Paulson Says She’s Cautious on December Rate Decision
Updating the Fed speak the last few weeks:
- 5 Voters have strongly signaled they do not want to cut rates (Barr, Musalem, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins)
- 5 Voters signaled they want to cut rates (Miran, Waller, Bowman, Williams, Cook)
- 2 Voters are unknown (Powell and Jefferson)
If the Fed is truly becoming independent, then it should be a 7-5 vote … either way.
—
If they cave and vote 11-1 or 10-2 (without a stock market crash), the FOMC members who are not the Fed chairman will wreck their reputations. In this case, you can replace them with summer interns.
—
If they cave and vote 11-1 or 10-2 (without a stock market crash), the FOMC members who are not the Fed chairman will wreck their reputations. In this case, you can replace them with summer interns.
TIPS Returns by Maturity (data through 11/12/25)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $22.6 Bn on 11/5/25 to $22.5 Bn on 11/12/2025 = ($0.1 Bn)
- 2 – 6 years: ($1.4 Bn) on 11/5/25 to ($1.3 Bn) on 11/12/2025 = $0.1 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $4.9 Bn on 11/5/25 to $5.0 Bn on 11/12/2025 = $0.1 Bn
- > 11 years: $414 Mn on 11/5/25 to $398 Mn on 11/12/2025 = ($16) Mn
In the News
OilPrice: New U.S. Sanctions Could Leave 48 Million Barrels of Russian Oil Adrift at Sea
Redfin News: U.S. Luxury Home Prices Jump 5.5% in October, Triple the Pace of Non-Luxury Homes
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 11/24/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 11/24/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Fed Releases Annual Revision to Industrial Production
- 11/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 11/25/2025at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Ex Auto Mom / Ex Auto and Gas
- 11/25/2025at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Control Group
- 11/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / POPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 11/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, PPI Final Demand YoY
- 11/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 11/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 11/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index QoQ
- 11/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / US HPI YoY HSA
- 11/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
- 11/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
- 11/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / NSA YoY
- 11/25/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 11/26/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 11/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 11/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 11/26/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 11/26/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 11/26/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book