US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s UST 10y range: 4.22% – 4.295%, closing at 4.24%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
From our Arbor Data Science Desk:
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
The Fed started targeting 2% in January 2012. Red is what Core PCE did from 2012 to the COVID recession. Blue is what Core PCE did post 2020.
The argument is inflation has been “fixed.” I do not see it.
Y/Y core PCE bottomed in May at 2.67%, not only higher than anything seen from 2012 to 2020, but if Core PCE ever got to 2.67% between 2012 and 2020, it would have been considerable completely unacceptable. Now this is consider “fixed.”
In October Core PCE was 2.80%. A reasonable argument can be made that Core PCE has already bottomed in May.
In Other News…
CNBC: The shipping industry is wrestling with one of its biggest challenges – seafarer shortages
The shipping industry is contending with a worldwide shortage of seafarers, and it’s fueling a troubling mix of fake resumes, accidents at sea, and elevated freight rates.
Ocean shipping is an integral part of the world’s supply chain — more than 80% of global trade volume is carried by sea, according to the U.N. Trade and Development organization.
Arbor Data Science: Global Supply Chain Update – November 27, 2024
SupplyChainBrain: Increased Consumer Confidence Will Boost Holiday Shopping
Seasonal spending from holiday shoppers in the U.S. is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2024, driven by easing inflation rates, earlier promotions from retailers and other factors driving consumer confidence.
Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Plateau After a Pandemic-Era Rollercoaster Ride
U.S. investor home purchases fell 2% year over year in the third quarter, a much smaller change than the swings of the last several years. Purchases are now back near pre-pandemic levels.
KPMG: Global CEO Outlook Survey
This years’ findings reveal that CEOs are hardening their stance on returning to pre-pandemic ways of working, with 83 percent expecting a full return to the office within the next three years — a notable increase from 64 percent in 2023.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/02/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 12/02/2024 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM & ISM Manufacturing
- 12/02/2024 at 10:00am EST: ISM Prices Paid & ISM New Orders & ISM Employment
- 12/02/2024 at 3:15pm EST: Waller Gives Keynote at Fed Framework Conference
- 12/02/2024 at 4:30pm EST: Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 12/03/2024 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings
- 12/03/2024 at 3:45pm EST: Goolsbee Gives Closing Remarks
- 12/03/2024: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 12/04/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/04/2024 at 8:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 12/04/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders & Factory Orders Ex Trans
- 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index & ISM Services Prices Paid
- 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders & ISM Services Employment
- 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Durables Ex Transportation & ISM Services New Orders
- 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef ex Air & Cao Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 12/04/2024 at 8:45am EST: Musalem Speaks on US Economy, Policy
- 12/04/2024 at 2:00pm EST: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book