US Treasuries
- Treasury yields climbed higher (led by the long-end) after a selloff of Japan’s bonds, followed by $16 billion in new corporate bond supply (Merck with an $8 billion eight-part bond offering)
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.03% – 4.095%, closing at 4.09%
- Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.69% – 4.75%, closing at 4.74%
Join us for our Next Conference Call: Thursday, December 4, 2025, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Silver is about 20% higher in the last seven trading days.
The most important component of the ISM report is new orders. It’s in the index of leading economic indicators, and people like the Fed look at it closely. It down ticked in November.
Typically, what drives prices paid is energy prices. They move together. But as these arrows show, crude oil prices (orange) have been falling as raw material prices (blue) have been rising.
In the News
BusinessWire: Record Black Friday Lifts Klarna to 45% November Growth
HR Digest: U.S. Mass Layoff Warnings Hit Highest Level in a Decade
Newsweek: US Housing Market Entering ‘New Era’ in 2026
Arbor Data Science: Japan: The Land of the Rising Debt
A New Outlet for Soybeans?
WPR.org: Wisconsin bill promotes soybean-based firefighting foam to replace PFAS
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/29/2025 – 12/11/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 12/02/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 12/02/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Committee
- 12/03/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/03/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 12/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 12/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM / Export Price Index YoY
- 12/03/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization/ Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Industrial Production MoM
- 12/03/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 12/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / ISM Services New Orders / Employment
- 12/04/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 12/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 12/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: PCE Price Index MoM/ PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / U. of Mich. Current Conditions / U. of Mich. Expectations
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment 1-Yr Inflation/ U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 12/05/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit