End of Day Summary – 12/02/2024

US Treasuries

• Monday’s UST 10y range: 4.17% – 4.24%, closing 4.19%

Upcoming US Treasury Supply 

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations 

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From our Arbor Data Science Desk: Commodities Update – December 2, 2024 

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Conference Call Wednesday, December 4, 2024, featuring Jim Bianco: Looking Into 2025

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Jim Bianco Joins Schwab Network to explain why the Fed should not cut rates anymore

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Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco 

*US NOV. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 48.4; EST. 47.5

Note that ISM has been below 50 for twenty-five months except for one month, March 2024.

But see the bottom panel; the economy continues to grow at the potential.

And note that 48.4 is the highest since May. So, don’t let sub-50 fake you out. This is a strong reading.

ISM employment jumped the most since March 2021.

• Powell speaks on Wednesday (12:45 EST: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in a moderated discussion at the New York Times) 
• Payrolls Friday

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In Other News… 

OilPrice: This Forgotten Metal Could be The No. 1 Commodity Play of 2025 

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, American manufacturers use over 50 million pounds of antimony each year. That’s because antimony is a critical component in the production of semiconductors, batteries, and solar panels. From electronics to renewable energy, the modern world runs on antimony.

SuccessfulFarming: Where Is Farming Going? 

American Farmland Trust (AFT), a nonprofit working to conserve farmland, expects 300 million acres of U.S. agricultural land to change hands in the next 20 years.

The group’s analysis of the USDA’s Census of Agriculture and the USDA’s 2015 land tenure report shows upwards of 40% of farmland is owned by people over 65. 

Arbor Data Science: 

PennLive: Holiday air travel in US sets single-day record 

The Transportation Security Administration said Monday that it handled 3.09 million travelers, breaking the previous record by about 74,000. That mark was set on July 7, also a Sunday after a holiday.

• 12/03/2024 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings 
• 12/03/2024 at 12:35pm EST: Kugler Gives Speech on Labor Market, Policy 
• 12/03/2024 at 1:30pm EST: Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 12/03/2024 at 3:45pm EST: Goolsbee Gives Closing Remarks 
• 12/03/2024: Wards Total Vehicle Sales 
• 12/04/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications 
• 12/04/2024 at 8:15am EST: ADP Employment Change 
• 12/04/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI 
• 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders & Factory Orders Ex Trans 
• 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index & ISM Services Prices Paid 
• 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders & ISM Services Employment 
• 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Durables Ex Transportation & ISM Services New Orders
• 12/04/2024 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef ex Air & Cao Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 
• 12/04/2024 at 8:45am EST: Musalem Speaks on US Economy, Policy 
• 12/04/2024 at 9:00am EST: Barkin Speaks in CNBC Interview
• 12/04/2024 at 1:45pm EST: Powell Speaks in Moderated Discussion 
• 12/04/2024 at 2:00pm EST: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 
• 12/05/2024 at 7:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY 
• 12/05/2024 at 12:15pm EST: Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook 
• 12/05/2024 at 8:30am EST: Trade Balance & Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls & Two-Month Payroll Net revision 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls & Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Unemployment Rate 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM & Average Hourly Earnings YoY 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees & Labor Force Participation Rate 
• 12/06/2024 at 8:30am EST: Underemployment Rate 
• 12/06/2024 at 9:15am EST: Bowman Speaks to Missouri Bankers Association 
• 12/06/2024 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions 
• 12/06/2024 at 10:00am EST:U. of Mich. Expectations & U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 
• 12/06/2024 at 10:30am EST: Goolsbee Participates in Fireside Chat 
• 12/06/2024 at 12:00pm EST: Hammack Speak on the US Economy 
• 12/06/2024 at 1:00pm EST: Daly Speaks in Moderated Discussion 
• 12/06/2024 at 3:00pm EST: Consumer Credit 
• 12/09/2024 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM & Wholesale Inventories MoM 
• 12/09/2024 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations