US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.08% – 4.11%, closing at 4.085%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.725% – 4.765%, closing at 4.74%
Bloomberg: Trump Says He’ll Announce New Fed Chair ‘Early Next Year’
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Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
The narrative over the last two days has been the bond markets weakness is because the Bank of Japan is going to raise rates.
Why is this a shock? As this chart shows the market has been pricing a rate cut on and off for this December meeting for months.
The other narrative is that the market just discovered that Japanese interest rates are going higher. Have they not been paying attention?
The 10-year yield has been in a well-defined downtrend since May. Around 416 to 420 on the upside would be a break through. A lower low under the October low of 3.93% would reestablish the downtrend.10 year yields traded 4.11% this morning and are currently trading at 4.08%.
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Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/29/2025 – 12/11/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 12/03/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/03/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 12/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / YoY / Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 12/03/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM / Export Price Index YoY
- 12/03/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization/ Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Industrial Production MoM
- 12/03/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 12/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / ISM Services New Orders / Employment
- 12/04/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 12/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 12/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: PCE Price Index MoM/ PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / U. of Mich. Current Conditions / U. of Mich. Expectations
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment 1-Yr Inflation/ U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 12/05/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 12/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 12/09/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / Rate