US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.04% – 4.09%, closing at 4.055%
- Wednesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.71% – 4.75%, closing at 4.72%
Join us tomorrow for our Next Conference Call: Thursday, December 4th, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
*US NOV. ISM SERVICES PRICES PAID INDEX FALLS TO 7-MONTH LOW
Here are the prices paid indices for both services (orange) and manufacturing (blue). They are both well above 50. If you asked an economist, in a vacuum, what it means if both of these numbers are well above 50, they wouldn’t say inflation is an issue. Today, we ignore these numbers because they don’t fit the narrative.
What fits the narrative is a bad-looking ADP, even though that number has never been able to forecast anything correctly. So, we forget its poor history and go with it because we like what it implies.
If the public thinks affordability is a problem, then affordability is a problem.
This chart shows Trump’s approval rating (black) and his approval rating on various issues. See the green line, inflation. It’s at the lowest of his presidency, and far lower than everything else, even the economy (brown).
Inflation is THE ISSUE. How is cutting rates and pumping up the stock market going to fix this?
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Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/29/2025 – 12/11/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 12/04/2025 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 12/04/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg/ Continuing Claims
- 12/04/2025 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: PCE Price Index MoM/ PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / U. of Mich. Current Conditions / U. of Mich. Expectations
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment 1-Yr Inflation/ U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 12/05/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 12/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 12/09/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / Rate
- 12/10/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate