US Treasuries
- Treasury yields climbed (led by the long end) after new jobless claims came in lower than forecast
- Thursday’s range for UST 10y: 4.07% – 4.11%, closing at 4.11%
- Thursday’s range for UST 30y: 4.73% – 4.765%, closing at 4.76%
Conference Call Replay Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Challenger Gray & Christmas released their November job layoff report this morning. It returned to its three-year average. The March peak was DOGE layoffs, and the October peak, which got everybody consternated, was Amazon announcing it would lay off many warehouse workers. But remember, Amazon employs almost 2 million people.
Politico released a poll this morning with these startling results.
Politico: Poll: Trump’s own voters begin blaming him for affordability crisis
Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with.
While Politico spins this as a major problem for Trump, it’s equally a major problem for the Federal Reserve.
This is the very definition of unanchored inflation! And Jay Powell mouthing the words “inflation expectations remain well contained” at next week’s press conference does not make this go away. I really want to hear them explain why they think that to fix this problem that they need to cut rates.
In the News
SupplyChainBrain: Black Sea War Insurance Soars 250% After Ship Attacks
The Guardian: The AI boom is heralding a new gold rush in the American west
Heatmap: Calling EVs a ‘Scam,’ Trump Leans in on Gas Cars
Arbor Data Science: The Rise and Fall of Electric Vehicles
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 11/29/2025 – 12/11/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: PCE Price Index MoM/ PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM / Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / U. of Mich. Current Conditions / U. of Mich. Expectations
- 12/05/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment 1-Yr Inflation/ U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 12/05/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 12/08/2025 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 12/09/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / Rate
- 12/10/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate