US Treasuries
- Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.13% – 4.19%, closing at 4.17%
- Monday’s range for UST 30y: 4.79% – 4.83%, closing at 4.815%
- Tuesday, 12/9/25: $39 Billion 10y Note Auction
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
99% probability the Fed will cut on Wednesday
(Although it might/should be a 7-5 or 8-4 vote to cut)
But after Wednesday, there’s only a 24% chance they will cut again in January.
January would be a second pause this cycle (which began with a 50-basis-point cut in September 2024). If this happens, will they get the data to restart cutting for a third time? I would argue no, and if they pause in January, they are done for this cycle.
Looks more like a breakout now.
In the News
Karen Braun on X:
Newsweek: Student Loan Delinquencies Surge to Alarming Levels – Credit Score Report
SupplyChainBrain: Canadian Airline Says it Will Suspend Flights in Response to Strike Threat
Arbor Data Science: The Great Rate Debate Could Bring a Dreaded Fedlock
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/09/2025 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: BLS Releases Sept & Oct JOLTS Data
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Quits Level / Rate
- 12/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Layoffs Level / Rate
- 12/10/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims / Trade Balance
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM /Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 12/12/2025 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Real Estate Roundtable Series
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/12/2025 at 10:35am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Outlook Symposium