US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.14% – 4.185%, closing at 4.18%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.77% – 4.81%, closing at 4.805%
- Wednesday, 12/10/2025: FOMC Rate Decision
- Thursday, 12/11/25:$22 Billion 30y Bond Auction
Bloomberg: Hawks, Doves and Now a Lame Duck at the Fed
Talking Data Podcast: Jim Bianco Previews Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Nice graphic from Duke. The Fed thinks the neutral funds rate is 3%. So, the Fed calls the current rate of current policy 3.75%-4.00% (to be cut tomorrow) “moderately accommodative.”
This view is shared by only 6 of the 32 (19%) former Fed officials.
18 of 32 (56%) think the Fed is already restrictive (I do too) and 8 of 32 (25%) think they are neutral now.
18 of 32 (56%) think the Fed is already restrictive (I do too) and 8 of 32 (25%) think they are neutral now.
10 of 32 (31%) worry about inflation (I do too)
2 of 32 (6%) about an economic boom
6 of 32 (19%) about AI/Market Bust
A total of 18 of 32 (56%) are worried about things made WORSE by the Fed’s rate cuts.
*SPOT SILVER TOPS RECORD $60 AS TRADERS BET ON LOWER RATES
YTD (spot price change)
Silver = 101%
Gold = 60%
Bitcoin = -4%
In the News
OilPrice: U.S. Army Looks to Build Small Refineries for Critical Minerals
ZeroHedge: Gas Prices Drop To Lowest Level in Nearly 5 Years Across US
Successful Farming: Trump Threatens Mexico With 5% Tariff Increase Over Water Dispute
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/10/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims / Trade Balance
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM /Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 12/12/2025 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Real Estate Roundtable Series
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/12/2025 at 10:35am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Outlook Symposium
- 12/15/2025 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Williams delivers Keynote Remarks
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manfact. Payrolls
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Underemployment Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories