US Treasuries
- Today we closed at 4.15% in UST 10s with a high yield of 4.205%. We have a weekly support zone at 4.17% – 4.185% (76% shot to hold) and a monthly support zone at 4.13% – 4.16% (81% shot to hold).
- On deck… Thursday, 12/11/25: $22 Billion 30y Bond Auction
Jim Bianco Joins Bloomberg TV to Discuss Dissent at the Federal Reserve
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
POST FOMC Meeting…
*POWELL: RATES ARE WITHIN RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE NEUTRAL ESTIMATES
*POWELL: MONETARY POLICY IS NOT ON A PRESET COURSE
Meaning they will pause now. Futures pricing has a January cut at just 24%.
*POWELL: TREASURY PURCHASES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR FEW MONTHS
This allows the government to keep running massive deficits and big budgets, because they will expand the funding markets to meet the gigantic needs of a $39T Treasury market function, and should.
After the supply-constrained inflation spike, the next most significant driver of inflation is government spending. This will encourage more government spending.
*POWELL: FED REMOVED AGGREGATE LIMIT ON STANDING REPO OPERATIONS
The problem with the standing repo operation is the stigma associated with its use. They’re working to remove that stigma and encourage banks to use it frequently. December 31st will be a significant day in the repo market, as it’s the year’s largest settlement date.
*POWELL: DATA MAY BE DISTORTED BECAUSE SOME WASN’T COLLECTED
*POWELL: INFLATION BREAKEVENS ARE AT VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS
*POWELL: NOTHING WITH RATES SUGGESTS CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION
*POWELL: RATES MUST BE GOING UP BECAUSE OF SOMETHING ELSE
*POWELL: RATES COULD BE RISING ON EXPECTATIONS OF HIGHER GROWTH
In the News
ZeroHedge: WTI Holds Losses After Big Product Inventory Builds, US Crude Production Nears Record High
Bloomberg: Central Banks Are Hoarding Gold for a Reason
Successful Farming: Soybeans Have Been a Top U.S. Ag Export for Decades. What Happens When the Top Buyer Stops Buying? (Good charts in this article)
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims / Trade Balance
- 12/11/2025 at 08:30am EST: Exports MoM / Imports MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM /Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 12/11/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 12/12/2025 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Real Estate Roundtable Series
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/12/2025 at 08:30am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/12/2025 at 10:35am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Outlook Symposium
- 12/15/2025 at 09:30am EST: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
- 12/15/2025 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Williams delivers Keynote Remarks
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manfact. Payrolls
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Underemployment Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 12/17/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/17/2025 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Opening Remarks
- 12/17/2025 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion