US Treasuries
- Thursday’s UST 10y range: 4.265% – 4.33%, closing at 4.32%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
From our Arbor Data Science Desk: TIPS Snapshot – 12/12/2024
On deck: UST 5y TIPS (Reopening) Auction, Thursday, 12/19/2024
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss the Federal Reserve, Trump Economic Policies & Cryptocurrency
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
99% probability of a cut next week
Or, an 81% probability of NO MOVE.
In Other News…
Insurance News Net: Farmers Insurance promises to write more California home insurance policies ahead of planned reforms
Farmers Insurance plans to start writing more home insurance policies in California ahead of regulatory reforms set for next year, the state’s second-largest homeowners insurance provider announced Wednesday.
California’s property insurance market has been reeling after a series of devastating wildfires over the last decade, with estimated losses of more than $35.8 billion.
Arbor Data Science: When OER Won’t Break by Sam Rines
Yahoo Finance: Egg inflation is back again, prices up 8.2% month over month
A popular item in American grocery baskets just got more expensive.
Chemistry World: Opposition to lithium mines hampers green technology supply chain
Lithium is among a basket of metals viewed as essential to the energy transition. Yet Europe and the US mine and process remarkably few of these resources, relying often on countries such as China for their supply.
Read more on Lithium from Arbor Data Science: Digging for Lithium
OilPrice: Refinery Closures Could Lift Global Diesel Prices in 2025
After rising in November to multi-month highs, refining margins for diesel have dropped over the past two weeks in all regions, including in the United States, Europe, and Asia.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM & Import Price Index YoY
- 12/13/2024 at 8:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 12/16/2024 at 8:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/16/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI & S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas & Retail Sales Control Group
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 12/17/2024 at 9:00am EST: Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
- 12/17/2024 at 9:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization & Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 12/17/2024 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories & NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/18/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: Building Permits & Housing Starts
- 12/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Starts MoM & Current Account Balance
- 12/18/2024 at 2:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/18/2024 at 2:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ & Personal Consumption
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: GDP Price Index & Core PCE Price Index QoQ & Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Initial Jobless Claims
- 12/19/2024 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index & Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
- 12/19/2024 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 12/19/2024 at 4:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows & Net Long-term TIC Flows