US Treasuries
- UST10s closed at 4.19% today. The range for the week was 4.10% – 4.21%.
- Our 2nd weekly support zone of 4.21% – 4.22% held.
- Fed’s Paulson: Sees More Risks to Labor Market Than Inflation
- Fed’s Schmid: Cites ‘Too High’ Inflation as Reason For Dissent
- Fed’s Goolsbee: Cites Need for More Data in Dissenting Vote
- Fed’s Hammack: Says She Prefers Slightly More Restrictive Rates
Bloomberg: US 30-Year Yield Highest Since September in Wake of Fed Moves
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Hammack: It is not obvious we have no inflation if you exclude tariffs.
Powell: Inflation is in the low 2s, if you take out tariffs.
Jim Bianco: As this chart shows, services inflation has been falling for years. But nearly 6 years after the COVID recession ended (April 2020), services inflation is still 3.5%. This is not remotely close to “take out tariffs and we have no inflation.”.
Hammack>Powell
Technical talk …10-year yield with the down-channel since May. It broke about this channel late last week.
Yesterday, the 10-year yield traded down to 4.10%, testing the top end of this channel. It held, and now yields are back to 4.19%.
TIPS by Maturity (data through 12/03/2025)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $23.0 Bn on 11/26/25 to $23.1 Bn on 12/03/2025 = $0.1 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $348 Mn on 11/26/25 to $2.7 Mn on 12/03/2025 = $2.3 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $4.6 Bn on 11/26/25 to $3.6 Bn on 12/03/2025 = ($1.0 Bn)
- > 11 years: $335 Mn on 11/26/25 to $413 Mn on 12/03/2025 = $78 Mn
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Arbor Data Science:
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/16/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: BLS to Release Nov. Employment with Partial Oct. Data
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manfact. Payrolls
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Underemployment Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Labor Force Participation Rate
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 12/16/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 12/16/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 12/17/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/17/2025 at 08:15am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 12/17/2025 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Opening Remarks
- 12/17/2025 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core PCI
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / CPI Index SA
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 12/18/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 12/18/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 12/19/2025 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5 -10 Yr Inflation
- 12/19/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas Cit Fed Services Activity