US Treasuries
- Monday’s UST 10y range: 4.36% – 4.41%, closing at 4.395%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
From our Arbor Data Science Desk: U.S. Vacancy Rate Approaches July 2020 Level
ConstructionDive: Apartment completions jump 61% YOY
Starts for buildings with five or more units dropped 12.6% year over year to a seasonally adjusted rate of 326,000 in October, according to a monthly report from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. They rose by 9.8% from September.
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
The Mag 7 is back to being over one-third of the S&P 500.
They have accounted for ~52% of the S&P 500 market cap gain in 2024.
And the Mag 7 accounts for ~55% of the 2024 gains in the world stock market cap.
In Other News…
WPR: Leaking valve on oil pipeline spills nearly 70K gallons of oil in Jefferson County
A valve failure on an Enbridge Energy oil pipeline in Wisconsin caused a spill that dumped some 69,000 gallons of oil into the ground.
How is the Consumer Holding Up this Holiday Season?
USA Today: Will Americans trim their holiday spending?
Holiday spending in November and December could rise to $989 billion, a 3.5% increase from last year, according to the National Retail Federation.Economists say a boost in consumers’ confidence, increased prices and an increase in spending among middle-income households may contribute to the overall bump in holiday spending this season.
According to TransUnion, the average credit card borrower owed $6,380 in the third quarter of 2024 — up from $6,088 one year ago and $4,869 three years ago.
The number of Americans carrying credit card balances has also increased. As of the same quarter, that number totaled 171.4 million, compared to 168.6 million a year before and 155.7 million in the third quarter of 2021.
Arbor Data Science: Breaking Down Household Debt
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/16/2024 at 8:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 12/16/2024 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI & S&P Global US Services PMI & S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas & Retail Sales Control Group
- 12/17/2024 at 8:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 12/17/2024 at 9:00am EST: Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
- 12/17/2024 at 9:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization & Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 12/17/2024 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories & NAHB Housing Market Index
- 12/18/2024 at 7:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: Building Permits & Housing Starts
- 12/18/2024 at 8:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM & Building Starts MoM & Current Account Balance
- 12/18/2024 at 2:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 12/18/2024 at 2:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ & Personal Consumption
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: GDP Price Index & Core PCE Price Index QoQ & Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 12/19/2024 at 8:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Initial Jobless Claims
- 12/19/2024 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index & Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
- 12/19/2024 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 12/19/2024 at 4:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows & Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 12/20/2024 at 7:30am EST: Fed’s Daly Appears on Bloomberg TV
- 12/20/2024 at 8:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending & Real Personal Spending
- 12/20/2024 at 8:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/20/2024 at 8:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
- 12/20/2024 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions & U. of Mich. Expectations
- 12/20/2024 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1-Yr Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Inflation
- 12/20/2024 at 10:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 12/23/2024 at 8:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 12/23/2024 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence/ Present Situation / Expectations