US Treasuries
- Our range today for UST10s was 4.135% – 4.19%. We closed at 4.14%.
- Our 1st weekly resistance zone is 4.12% – 4.14% (61% shot to hold).
- Our 2nd weekly resistance zone is 4.085% – 4.095% (57% to hold).
Bloomberg: Fed’s Liquidity Tool Gets a Rebrand After ‘Crisis of Confidence’
Join Us Thursday, December 18th, for our Next Conference Call Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
In an indication that a 3-month average of 22K jobs is the world we now live in …
Out this morning …The retail sales control group, which goes into the GDP calculation, for October, the same month that saw -105k jobs, was 0.8%, beating the expectations of 0.4%. This is additive to GDP.
So while I’m sure social media will be losing its mind over people losing jobs, the public was too busy at the store buying stuff to notice. If this were a normal period of population growth, stocks would be diving, bonds would be surging, and retail sales would be collapsing. Instead they are all acting like this is normal … because it is.
*US OIL FALLS BELOW $55 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE FEB 2021
In the News
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ZeroHedge: Pump-Prices Plummet As Ukraine Peace Deal Progress Sparks Oil Plunge
OilPrice: Global Coal Exports for First Annual Decline Since 2020
Arbor Data Science: Investor Flows – US Large Cap Rise to the Top
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/17/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/17/2025 at 08:15am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 12/17/2025 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Williams Delivers Opening Remarks
- 12/17/2025 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core PCI
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY / CPI Index SA
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY / Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 12/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 12/18/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 12/18/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 12/19/2025 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
- 12/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Williams Appears on CNBC
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / MoM
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 12/19/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5 -10 Yr Inflation
- 12/19/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 12/22/2025 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 12/23/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate
- 12/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / Personal Consumption / GDP Price Index
- 12/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ / Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 12/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 12/23/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
- 12/23/2025 at 09:15am EST: Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. Industrial Production on Dec. 23
- 12/23/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM and Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 12/23/2025 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization
- 12/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Richmond Fed Business Conditions
- 12/23/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations