US Treasuries
- UST 10s closed at 4.165% today. Today’s range was 4.135% – 4.20%.
- Our 1st weekly support zone is 4.19% – 4.205% (83% shot to hold). We have a 2nd weekly support zone of 4.28% – 4.29%.
- We have a 1st weekly resistance zone of 4.09% – 4.10% (90% shot to hold).
- On Deck: UST 7yr Note Auction on Wednesday, 12/24/2025
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Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
* ADP: US PRIVATE PAYROLLS ROSE AVG 11,500/WK IN 4 WKS TO DEC. 6
The bars represent the weekly ADP measure (since it is published as a four-week AVERAGE, the chart shows it as a four-week SUM to align with the convention for monthly readings). The black dot indicates the monthly report (the monthly SUM for the week of the 13th, the payroll survey week). The four-week SUM aligns closely with the monthly readings.
Next week is the week of the 13th, which is when the monthly measure is released. The last few weekly readings are among the strongest since ADP started publishing this measure this past summer.
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Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 12/24/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 12/24/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 12/29/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / NSA YoY
- 12/29/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 12/30/2025 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 12/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 12/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA
- 12/30/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
- 12/30/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
- 12/30/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 12/30/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes