US Treasuries
- Wednesday’s UST 10y range: 4.51% – 4.655%, closing at 4.63%
Today’s Recap:
- Treasury auctions conclude the week with a $25 bln UST 30y Bond auction tomorrow, Thursday (2/13/25)
- After a stronger-than-expected CPI today at 3.0% YoY, stay tuned for PPI which will be released tomorrow, Thursday (2/13/25) at 8:30am EST
Fed Speak:
- Fed Chairman Powell testified today in front of the House today:
- Underlying economy very strong but outlook uncertain
- Data today shows we’re close, but not there on inflation
- No evidence long rates went up because of inflation
- Fed holding rates, awaiting evidence of lower inflation
- Fed’s Bostic (non-voter): Need clarity on new policies before rate cuts
Bloomberg: Powell Says Latest Inflation Data Show Fed Has More Work to Do
“So we want to keep policy restrictive for now,” he added, suggesting interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco:
The probability of the next rate is exactly 50/50 for July (brown) and now really September (purple).
Update on New TVA:
- New TVA came in at 60/10s yesterday
- Some profit taking in it today
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
In Other News…
Arbor Data Science:
Bloomberg: Biggest US Grid Gets OK to Fast-Track Power Plants Amid AI Boom
The largest US grid has won federal approval to fast-track the review of dozens of new power-plant projects in a one-time push to shore up supplies as a proliferation of data centers for artificial intelligence boosts demand.
inman: Redfin to shed 450 staffers after $100M rental deal with Zillow
On the same day Redfin announced a new $100M partnership to syndicate Zillow rental listings in multifamily buildings, the company said it would eliminate approximately 450 positions.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 2/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM & PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 2/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & PPI Final Demand YoY
- 2/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY & PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
- 2/13/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas & Retail Sales Control Group
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY & Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 2/14/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization & Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 2/14/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 2/14/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Logan Speaks in Moderated Q&A
- 2/17/2025 at 09:30am EST: Harker Speaks on the Economy Outlook
- 2/17/2025 at 09:30am EST: Bowman Speaks to American Bankers Association
- 2/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 2/18/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 2/18/2025 at 10:20am EST: Daly Speaks to American Bankers Association
- 2/18/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows & Total Net TIC Flows
- 2/19/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts & Housing Starts MoM
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits & Building Permits MoM
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 2/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes