US Treasuries
- Bonds Rallied today: Thursday’s UST 10y range: 4.515% – 4.61%, closing at 4.52%
- Hedge funds were buyers of the long end of the curve and sellers of the front end
- Treasuries continued to rally in the afternoon when Trump announced tamer tariff talk (reciprocal tariffs now set to begin in April)
Bloomberg: Bonds Rally as New Inflation Data Repair Damage Inflected by CPI
Treasuries rallied as a report on producer prices suggested that Wednesday’s selloff sparked by hot consumer inflation data was overblown. The advance trimmed some yields by nearly 10 basis points, erasing most of the previous day’s surge.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco:
See the blue bar chart … a new uptrend in inflation is underway (red bars). If inflation were returning, this is how it would look.
Finally, see the market reaction (blue line). 2-year inflation expectations are rocketing higher, now at a 2-year high, and diverging from lower gasoline prices (brown). This is how “unanchored” inflation looks.
In Other News…
Goldman Sachs: AI to drive 165% increase in data center power demand by 2030
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts global power demand from data centers will increase 50% by 2027 and by as much as 165% by the end of the decade (compared with 2023), writes James Schneider, a senior equity research analyst covering US telecom, digital infrastructure, and IT services, in the team’s report.
TechCrunch: Data center tweaks could unlock 76 GW of new power capacity in the U.S.
Tech companies, data center developers, and power utilities have been panicking over the prospect of runaway demand for electricity in the U.S. in the face of unprecedented growth in AI.
Bloomberg: Hertz Tumbles With Worse-Than-Expected Loss on EV Sale Plan
Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said it finished selling 30,000 electric vehicles, many of which were Tesla Inc. models, as the rental giant moves on from an ill-advised bet on plug-in cars that customers didn’t want and were expensive to maintain.
Arbor Data Science: EVs Stuck in Neutral by Petr Pinkhasov
Layoffs Abound…
baha: Porsche to layoff 1,900 employees in Germany
The Economic Times: Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to layoff about 10% across its space, launch business
The Street: Meta’s recent layoffs take an unexpected turn
Reuters: Chevron to lay off up to 20% of global workforce
TimesNow: JPMorgan CEO Warns Staff On WFH Amid Mass Layoffs: ‘Don’t Waste Time’
Newsweek: Full List of Companies in California Laying Off Employees This Year
Arbor Data Science: An Uptick in Job Layoffs Led by the Technology Sector
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas & Retail Sales Control Group
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM & Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 2/14/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY & Export Price Index MoM & Export Price Index YoY
- 2/14/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM & Capacity Utilization & Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 2/14/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 2/14/2025 at 03:00pm EST: Logan Speaks in Moderated Q&A
- 2/17/2025 at 09:30am EST: Harker Speaks on the Economy Outlook
- 2/17/2025 at 09:30am EST: Bowman Speaks to American Bankers Association
- 2/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 2/18/2025 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 2/18/2025 at 10:20am EST: Daly Speaks to American Bankers Association
- 2/18/2025 at 06:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows & Total Net TIC Flows
- 2/19/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts & Housing Starts MoM
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits & Building Permits MoM
- 2/19/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 2/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 2/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 2/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims
- 2/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 2/20/2025 at 09:35am EST: Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
- 2/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 2/20/2025 at 12:05pm EST: Musalem Speaks to Economic Club of NY