End of Day Summary – 2/24/2025 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

Monday’s range for UST 10y: 4.385% – 4.45%, closing at 4.39%

Bloomberg: Companies Flood Bond Market in Second-Busiest Day This Month

More than a dozen companies are selling investment-grade bonds Monday, after yields have fallen over the last week and demand for corporate debt has remained strong.

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco

The idea of Mar-A-Lao accord is to get Europe pay for their security.

Link to last week’s Conference Call: Detailing the Rumored Mar-a-Lago Accord

It is happening:

*MERZ IN TALKS WITH GERMAN SPD TO RUSH THROUGH DEFENSE FUNDING

The debt swap was just a means to get paid. Maybe it happens, maybe not.

Bottom line, the US is getting defense spending relief from Europe spending more on defense. We are just debating the payment mechanism.

Blue line – Probability of a March cut = 2% (98% hold)

Orange line, Probability of a May 8 cut = 38% (72% hold)

But see the red line

Probability of a June 18 cut now 75% of a cut (25% hold).

See the label from last Wednesday (Fed 19) = 47% of cut (53% hold)

The last few days a big swing toward a June cut.

Any wonder the 2-year note auction went well (rally on a cut)

In Other News…

Sherwood News: TD Cowen warns that Microsoft might already have too many data centers

Microsoft’s boom in AI data center spending may have gotten out over its skis, according to a TD Cowen report published Friday that’s causing aftershocks across Wall Street and all the way over in Europe.

Arbor Data Science: The Rise of Data Centers

New York Post: Why the ‘war on inflation’ is over – even though the ‘experts’ don’t get it

Shoppers, understandably, are still freaking out in the grocery aisles, most recently over egg prices. Meanwhile, economists, politicos and pundits continue to sweat allegedly “sticky” categories for goods and services and rising wages – especially after January’s Consumer Price Index accelerated.

Brownfield: Midwest Farmland Values Down 1% In 2024

Midwestern farmland values decreased one percent in 2024.

Business Insider: Starbucks is laying off 1,100 corporate staff this week

Starbucks is laying off 1,100 corporate employees this week and will halt hiring for hundreds of open roles.

CBS News: Rising egg prices and high demand are prompting consumers to rent or buy chickens, but experts warn the move may not cut costs

Across the country, several hatcheries who spoke with CBS News said they’re seeing significantly more interest in buying chickens.

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

2/25/2025 at 04:20am EST: Logan Speaks at Balance Sheet Conference
2/25/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
2/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM & House Price Purchase Index QoQ
2/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA & S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA
2/25/2025 at 09:00am EST: S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
2/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence & Conf. Board Present Situation & Conf. Board Expectations
2/25/2025 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index & Richmond Fed Business Conditions
2/25/2025 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
2/25/2025 at 11:45am EST: Barr Gives Remarks on Financial Stability with Q&A
2/25/2025 at 01:00pm EST: Barkin Speaks on Inflation
2/26/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/26/2025: at 08:30am EST: Barkin Repeats Speech on Inflation
2/26/2025 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales & New Home Sales MoM
2/26/2025 at 12:00pm EST: Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook, Housing
2/26/2025: Building Permits & Building Permits MoM
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: GDP Price Index
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index QoQ
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
2/27/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
2/27/2025 at 09:15am EST: Schmid Gives Remarks at USDA Event
2/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM and Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
2/27/2025 at 10:00am EST: Barr Speaks on Novel Activity Supevision
2/27/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
2/27/2025 at 11:45am EST: Bowman Speaks on Community Banking
2/27/2025 at 01:15pm EST: Hammack Gives Keynote Speech at Conference
2/27/2025 at 03:15pm EST: Harker Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
2/27/2025: Barkin Repeats Speech on Inflation
2/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance & Retail Inventories
2/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income & Personal Spending
2/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Personal Spending & Wholesale Inventories MoM
2/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM & PCE Price Index YoY
2/28/2025 at 08:30am EST: Core PCE Price Index MoM & Core PCE Price Index YoY
2/28/2025 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
2/28/2025 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
2/28/2025 at 10:15pm EST: Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
3/03/2025 at 9:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
3/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM & ISM Manufacturing
3/03/2025 at 10:00am EST: ISM Prices Paid & ISM New Orders & ISM Employment
3/03/2025: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
3/03/2025 at 12:35pm EST: Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy

End of Day Summary – 2/24/2025

Intraday News • February 24, 2025

Edited by Kristen Radosh & Kylie Leverenz

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