End of Day Summary – 2/24/2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

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US Treasuries

UST 10s on Tuesday closed at 4.04%.

1st weekly resist at 4.015% / 4.03% 55% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly resist at 3.97% / 3.985% 80%to hold on the week

–> 1st monthly resist at 4.12% / 4.14% this zone has held for last 11 months
–> 2nd monthly resist at 4.03% / 4.055%

1st weekly support at 4.12% / 4.135% 90% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly support at 4.175% / 4.19%

On Deck: Tomorrow, 2/25/26: $70 Billion UST 5 year Note Auction

Fed’s Goolsbee: Says Tariff Ruling Could Help Cool Inflation
Fed’s Cook: Says Fed May Not be Able to Counter AI- Driven Unemployment

Conference Call Friday, February 27, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco

Click Here to Register

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

Client Question: So if services prices are falling (which are approximately 70% of spending in a mature economy), does Bianco Research think disinflation will follow? Rates to be cut? Unemployment to rise?

Jim Bianco: Are service prices really falling? What metric are they using? The measure I would use is Jay Powell’s super core, Core PCE services less housing. It jumped a big 0.63% in January. Also, wage inflation jumped 0.4% in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Services inflation is driven by one thing … wage inflation. We had a big hiring surge, a wage increase, and a jump in super core all in January. Super core’s year-over-year measure is 2.7% above the overall inflation measure.

Client: The question came from your posts re software services now being available for free or a lot less than they were

Jim Bianco: The opposite … we are going to get infinite spending on software, because we now can. Jevons Paradox (named after 19th-century economist William Stanley Jevons) is the counter-intuitive observation that when technological progress makes a resource dramatically more efficient or cheaper to use, the total consumption of that resource tends to increase, not decrease. In short: make something far cheaper, and people find way more ways to use it.

Classic example: better steam engines burned less coal per unit of work… so factories built more engines, ran them harder, and overall coal consumption soared. Applied here: the marginal cost of software development collapsing toward zero won’t mean less software. It will mean an explosion of it — thousands or millions of custom agents, intelligent systems, and on-demand tools that were previously too expensive to justify.

An AI agent is a small piece of software that performs a task. Instead of a spreadsheet, we will have thousands of small programs (agents), each designed to perform a task. All those tasks working in concert will accomplish the same thing as a complicated spreadsheet. The difference is that you don’t have to do it; the agents created by AI will. Until now, the cost of this approach was astronomical as humans had to write and maintain these thousands of programs. Now AI can do it for pennies.

Client: Yes and that’s the question if it now costs pennies rather than lots of $ isn’t that disinflationary?

Jim Bianco: On a per unit basis yes, but you’re about to get a lot more of it.

In the News

CNBC: Data center expansion reaches an ‘inflection point’

FreightWaves: Panama wrests control of Canal terminals from China operator

InsuranceJournal: FedEx Sues US for Refund on Trump’s Emergency Tariffs

Redfin: Half of Americans Struggle to Pay Rent or Mortgage, With Gen Z Hit Hardest

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

2/25/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/25/2026 at 10:40am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Panel
2/25/2026 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Schmidt Speaks on Monetary Policy and the Economy
2/25/2026 at 01:20pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Role of Fed
2/26/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/26/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
2/26/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before Senate Banking on Regulation
2/26/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Manf. Activity
2/27/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM and YoY/ PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM and YoY
2/27/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy Trade MoM and YoY, PPI Final Demand MoM and YoY
2/27/2026 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
2/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Nov and Dec. Construction Spending Data
2/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
2/27/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
3/02/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
3/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
3/03/2026: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
3/03/2026 at 09:55am EST: Fed Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
3/03/2026 at 11:55am EST: Fed Kashkari Speaks at 2026 Bloomberg Invest Conference