US Treasuries
- Friday’s range for UST 10y: 4.275% – 4.32%, closing at 4.31%
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
TIPS by Maturity
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
Data through 3/5/25
- < 2 years: $14.9 Bn on 2/26/25 to $14.4 Bn on 3/05/25 = ($0.5 Bn)
- 2 – 6 years: $7.5 Bn on 2/26/25 to $7.7 Bn on 3/05/25 = ($0.2 Bn)
- 6 – 11 years: $2.1 Bn on 2/26/25 to $1.7 Bn on 3/05/25 = ($0.4 Bn)
- > 11 years: $467 Mn on 2/26/25 to $82 Mn on 3/05/25 = ($385Mn)
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
33 year high
Why is this spiking? There is a reasonable explanation … the survey participants have read the stories about tariffs and expect higher prices.
In Other News…
OilPrice: Drillers Brace for Fallout from Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
The latest targets of Trump’s tariff offensive were steel and aluminum—both critical metals for the oil and gas industry.
Progressive Farmer: USDA Sees Record Corn Crop Ahead
USDA forecasts farmers will produce a record corn crop in 2025-26 at 15.58 billion bushels (bb) while soybean production will also increase slightly to 4.37 bb despite lower planted soybean acres.
FreightWaves: Container imports headed for summer doldrums, says NRF
Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain high through spring but could see year-over-year declines this summer, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Arbor Data Science:
New York Post: Egg, poultry ‘price gouging’ reports in NY up more than 840% amid bird flu outbreak
Complaints of illegal egg and poultry price gouging in New York state are up more than 840% in 2025 amid the recent bird flu outbreak.
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/08/2025 – 3/20/2025: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 3/14/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment & U. of Mich. Current Conditions & U. of Mich. Expectations
- 3/14/2025 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr- Inflation & U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 3/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM & Empire Manufacturing
- 3/17/2025 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM & Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas & Retail Sales Control Group
- 3/17/2025 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories & NAHB Housing Market Index
- 3/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts/Housing Starts MoM
- 3/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Building Permits/Building Permits MoM
- 3/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM/Import Price Index ex Petroleum/Import Price Index YoY
- 3/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM/Export Price Index YoY
- 3/18/2025 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 3/18/2025 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM/Capacity Utilization/Manufacturing (SIC) Production
- 3/19/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/19/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
- 3/19/2025 at 04:00pm EST: Net Long-term TIC Flows / Total Net TIC Flows
- 3/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Current Account Balance
- 3/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims
- 3/20/2025 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 3/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 3/20/2025 at 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales / Existing Homes Sales MoM
- 3/21/2025 at 09:05am EST: Fed’s Williams speaks in the Bahamas