End of Day Summary – 3/18/2026

Intraday News  •  March 18, 2026
Edited by Kristen Radosh & Kylie Leverenz

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US Treasuries

10s closed at 4.26
  • 1st daily support is 4.275/4.28            
  • 2nd daily support is 4.32/4.33             80% to hold
  • 1st weekly support at 4.33/4.35          89% to hold

 

  • 3rd monthly support at 4.27/4.30           
  • 1st daily resistance is 4.22/4.225         56% to hold
  • 2nd daily resistance is 4.19/4.20          50% to hold
  • 1st weekly resistance at 4.125/4.16     90% to hold

On Deck Tomorrow: $19 billion UST 10y TIPS Auction (Reopening)

Join Us for Tomorrow for our Next Conference Call: Thursday, March 19, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco

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Jim Bianco joins CNBC to Preview Today’s FOMC Meeting 

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) or 28.8% (bottom panel).

When Chris Waller was in the running for Fed Chairman, he dissented for cuts. Then he was not picked. Then he said his view is now dependent on the labor market. February nonfarm payrolls were -90k. This screams a Waller dissent for another cut. He did not dissent.

The most interesting question for Powell, which is NOW a legit question with Warsh nominated …

“Are you staying on as a Fed Governor after your last day as Chairman on May 15?”

This is the first presser since Warsh was nominated (which was two days AFTER the last meeting).

It’s interesting that Powell continues to highlight the impact of tariffs on goods inflation.

 
Powell: “The thing that’s really important that we see this year, is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one time effects on prices of tariffs, go through the system, go through the economy. That’s the main thing we’re looking for.”
Powell talking about tariff inflation as much as crude oil inflation. Yields jump after Powell say rate cuts won’t arrive if there is no progress on inflation. Two-year yield now up 4bps near 4.72%.
They cannot argue away inflation anymore. They have to wait for better numbers.
And, as I noted yesterday with gasoline’s impact on inflation, next month’s inflation numbers will be terrible.

Powell says rates could be characterized as anywhere on a range of being around the “high end of neutral” or mildly or modestly restrictive.

*POWELL: HAVEN’T MADE DECISION YET ON HOW LONG I’LL STAY AT FED
So, if the Senate is “too late” in confirming Warsh by May 15, then “too late” will stay as Fed Chairman! Powell is now saying the labor breakeven rate is zero, and “that is balance.” So we create no jobs and that is all we need.  

And he confirmed what I have argued. While zero might be the appropriate number of jobs …

 

*POWELL: LABOR MARKET DOES HAVE A FEEL OF DOWNSIDE RISK

 
It does not  “feel right” even though it might be. If you saw me on CNBC an hour ago, this is exactly what Steve Weiting was arguing. Jobs are falling and that is bad, and labor supply, or the breakeven rate, really does not matter.
 

“The two-year yield trades at session high of 3.735%, up 6bps on the day traders trim the Fed’s path of interest rate cuts. December OIS back dips to 18bps and the market returns to seeing the first full 25bps cut only around mid-2027. It seems, Powell’s presser has punctured the initial view of a dovish or neutral hold from the statement and SEP.”

 

He continues to talk about tariffs as much as energy.

 
It will take “some years” for positive real-earnings gains to make people feel better again, Powell says. He notes that inflation-adjusted wages have gone up for three years roughly at this point, “but people are not feeling good” about the cost of living.
 

In the News 

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak 

Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases

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